Fan vs Fan

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Steven Stamkos to The Flyers- Bad Idea

Steven Stamkos to the Flyers? Bad idea.

To elaborate, here's why:

(All Numbers from @CapGeek)

If the Flyers were to sign Stamkos at say, 7.1M per season for 15 years, and fork over their next 4 First Round picks, this is what the Flyers would be looking at:

Hartnell 4.2 NTC, Briere 6.5 NMC, Stamkos 7.1
JvR 1.654, Giroux 3.75, Schenn 3.1
Versteeg 3.083, Betts 700K, Nodl 850K
Read 900K, Shelley 1.1M

Total Cap Hit: 29.904M

Pronger 4.921 35+, Timonen 6.3 NMC
Meszaros 4, Coburn 3.2
Carle 3.4375, Bartulis 600K

Total Cap Hit: 22.4585

Bryzgalov: 5.666
Bobrovsky: 1.75

Total Cal Hit: 7.416

Team Total: 29.904+22.4856+7.416= 59.806M committed salary

LTIR: Ian Lapperiere

Waive to AHL: Matt Walker, Michael Leighton

So it looks good, right? Stamkos is a Flyer and there's 4.4944, but wait...this isn't a full roster. For the sake of ease of math, I'll round up the cap number to 4.5M free.

4.5 Million and the following needs:

a Number 6 Defenseman on the UFA market, a UFA 13th Forward and 2 RFA's that need to be signed, Simmonds and Voracek. Well, by value of production the RFA offers to Simmonds and Voracek should be 1.75 for Simmonds and 2.5 for Voracek so, that totals 4.25 for the 2 RFA's meaning there's 250K for a 13th forward and a 6th Defenseman.

Well, obviously Sestito makes Jody Shelley expendable, so waive Jody Shelley, that means the Flyers now have 1.35 free in cap money, call up Eric Wellwood at 580K as the replacement for Jody Shelley and the Flyers have 770K free for 2 roster spots, a 6th Defenseman and a 12th Forward.

Ok, so, maybe Brayden Schenn starts the season in the AHL, freeing up 3.1M in cap room, but then Ville Leino is resigned at 2.67 to replace him so, when the 3.1 of Schenn is added to the 770K and then the 2.67 for Leino is factored in; the Flyers have 1.2M in Cap Space and 2 roster spots open, a 6th D-man and a 13th Forward who both come in at the league minimum.

Call up Zac Rinaldo as the 13th forward and the Flyers have 655K in capspace and 1 Defenseman that needs to be filled.

655K, one defenseman is easy to find, but then...the Flyers have ZERO space for anyone to get hurt. If any player, misses a game due to injury, the Flyers have no space to make an injury callup as LTIR doesn't kick in unless a player misses 10 games or 24 days.

Ok, but Matt, there's solutions like these:

Trade Versteeg's 3,083M for a 1.5M D-man: Problem, the Flyers shopped Versteeg, there were no takers...this doesn't work

Trade Carle for a 1.5M D-man and a mid round pick to balance the lack of value coming back: Problem- Carle may be average without Pronger, but if the Flyers deal any defenseman not named Pronger or Timonen, the blueline becomes hugely weakened.

Trade Timonen/Briere: I would LOVE to trade these players, they're horribly overpaid, but both have FULL NMC's, the team can ask them to waive it, but here's how that would go:

Holmgren: Hey, can you waive your NMC?
Timonen/Briere: Or what?
Holmgren: We will waive you
Timonen/Briere: You can't, it's an NMC not NTC.
Holmgren: We will buy you out.
Timonen/Briere: You can't, it's an NMC.
Holmgren: Oh, uhh, I guess you have me in a corner here.
Timonen/Briere: DUH!

Get the picture?

Trade Hartnell for a 2.5M D-man: This could work, Harntell has agreed to waive his NTC, if the Flyers can find the right deal, it could work. All they need is a trade partner that needs to hit the salary floor and can give a decent D-man back the other way. If Colorado would deal Erik Johnson for Hartnell and Carle, it could work nicely, but this deal has a less than 10% chance of happening.

Waive Hartnell: Actually, this one works...if you're willing to lose Hartnell for free...or risk him at half price on Recall Waivers

If you're trading Giroux/JvR to make the cap-space, well your hurting the team in the long run and I refuse to crunch any numbers on that idea.

Anyway, see my point, Steven Stamkos isn't worth this headache for the Flyers, unless he's guaranteed to keep the whole team healthy AND score 60 goals.

Or the Flyers can just trade Bryzgalov to Colorado for Erik Johnson and free up 3.06M, resign Brian Boucher to backup Bobrovsky...I'd say this would never happen, but Holmgren dealt Jeff Carter before his 11 year extension kicked in....

And for Stephen:

Stamkos would be a good fit on the Colorado Avalanche. They have the Cap Space. This wouldn't be a problem.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

DGS Guide to NHL Free Agency

Another beginning to Free Agency is upon us, with that, there's a lot of information out there but luckily, and it seems that somethings happen out of nowhere. But in fact, that's not true, there's actually a strict code that GMs mostly adhere to. Here it is.

The 10 Commandments of NHL Free Agency:

1. I am the GM of the Rangers, no one will overpay like me.

2. Thou shalt not circumvent the Salary Cap in vain

3. Remember to keep holy July 1.

4. Honor thy Owner and thy Sponsors (like Paul Holmgren)

5. Thou shalt not trade recently signed long term contracts. (Sorry Homer)

6. Thou shalt not commit tampering. (But seriously, how else are complex long term deals announced exactly at 12 noon?)

7. Thou shalt try to steal bargain players at bigger bargains.

8. Thou shalt not bear false offer sheets to RFA's for the intent of screwing over another team's cap situation.

9. Thou shalt not covet thy rival's goalie

10. Thou shalt not covet thy rival's cap-space

Friday, June 24, 2011

Flyerdom Speaks: The Reactions to the Trades

Credit to @ItsAFez66

Might  be a tad bit over the top, also from @ItsAFez66

I wanted to know why the Flyers couldn't just release Carcillo, Leighton, Boucher, Shelly, Zherdev and not resign Leino instead of moving Richards.

Ok, I'll tackle this on a player to player basis:

Carcillo: RFA, he's already "off" the books until his situation is resolved.

Zherdev and Boucher: still not enough, Giroux got a 3M raise and losing these to covers Giroux

Shelley and Leighton: Waivers don't go into effect until training camp, there's nothing to do about them until then

So yes, both "had" to go. But this comes back to Holmgren overpaying Timonen, Briere, Hartnell and Pronger all of whom should be making about 1-1.5M less then what they are, Blame Holmgren.

And finally, I leave you with this, a letter from another fan:

I don't understand why direction the front office is going in. The returns for Richards and Carter aren't too bad. Voracek and Schenn could become top line players, Simmonds is a good, young, gritty two-way forward who will endear himself to the fans and has been praised by Giroux. 2012 looks to be a great draft, and according to Anthony SanFilippo, the Flyers are looking to move into the top 3 to select Gabriel Landeskog or Adam Larsson. 
This youth is all well and good and could lead the Flyers to a Cup in five years, but the organization isn't committing to a full rebuild. The defense relies heavily on Chris Pronger (who is on the cap, whether we like it or not, for the next 6 years) and Kimmo Timonen (who has publicly indicated that he will retire after his current contract). Andrej Meszaros, Braydon Coburn, and Matt Carle can all be very good top 4 defense, but neither of them has shown they can anchor a top pairing. Meanwhile, the Flyers really have no top pairing defensive prospects, outside of who they select with the 8th overall (if they keep it) or Adam Larsson (if they move up to 3rd overall and miss out on Landeskog).
Signing Ilya Bryzgalov gives them a Cup-caliber goaltender for the next 5 years or so. After that, Bryzgalov will likely not be worth his $5.667 million cap hit, as only two 35+ year-old starting goalies were in the top 30 in save percentage (Tim Thomas and Dwayne Roloson). The fact that Bryzgalov is signed to a 9-year deal indicates that Sergei Bobrovsky will be traded, as it is hard to imagine Bob wanting to wait for a starting job until he is at least 29 (which is an optimistic assumption of Bryzgalov retiring after the front-loaded 7 years of his contract). The Flyers record of developing goalies leads one to think they will not have a replacement in mind when Bryzgalov does in fact retire.
So my reaction is this: what are we dealing with here? The defense and goaltending is set to compete for the Stanley Cup now, but the offense's youth will likely hold them back. The offense is set to compete for the Stanley Cup in 5 years, but the defense's and goaltender's age and lack of star power will likely hold them back. These moves make no sense.
Perhaps my biggest concern though is how this will affect the future of Claude Giroux and James van Riemsdyk. Mike Richards said, among other things, today, "I probably wouldn't have signed the deal, actually, if I knew I'd be traded." Why would either of these two sign a long term deal with the Flyers now at less than market value? Maybe if Paul Holmgren is fired, this notion would change, but I tend to believe that a lot of this is due to Ed Snider. Part 4 of Holmgren's interview on the Flyers' website makes me believe that his hand was forced, along with the extreme U-turn the team appears to have taken in philosophy. Plain and simple, I do not believe that Paul Holmgren is to blame for trading Mike Richards.
Basically what I'm trying to say is "What is going on?"

Or a more optimistic approach:

Well at first I thought it was going to be like 06-07 all over again, but after they signed Bryzgalov  I looked at who they got and  I realized they got younger and the kids they got can play. I feel that we have to wait and see to figure out if Homer made the right moves

Keep the discussion going.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

The Alternative NHL Awards

So if you watched the NHL Awards last night, you may have been let down by some of the results, or just thought that the all around feel of the show was "meh", I mean- Jay Mohr...really? really? And...that musical was almost as bad as meeting Matt Cooke or Raffi Torres behind the net. Luckily, for anyone let down by the NHL awards we here at DGS have a set of Alternative Awards that should be more entertaining than Jay Mohr and Gary Bettman. Mainly because, we guarantee that Jay Mohr and Gary Bettman aren't here to present anything.

Award: The Vesa Toskala Memorial Award of "Goaltending"
Nominees: 1-Sergei Bobrovsky playoff edition 2-Brian Boucher in clutch games 3- Michael Leighton's existence
And the Winner Is:...A god-damn tie between all 3 Flyers goalies.

Award: The Trevor Gillies Award of Useful-lessness

Nominees: 1-Trevor Gillies wearing a road uniform 2-Trevor Gillies in a home uniform 3-Trevor Gillies on suspension
And the Winner Is:...Raffi Torres, because Trevor Gillies proved he has some value in naming the award.

Award: The Houdini Disappearing Award in the Playoffs

Nominees: 1- Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin 2- Sidney Crosby 3- Jeff Carter
And the Winner Is:...Sidney Crosby, because no matter how much we heard about him, he never seemed to be on the ice. (Though, with the news Carter is going to Columbus, pretty sure he has 11 years of never making the playoffs ahead of him)

Award: The Glen Sather Memorial GM Award
Nominees: 1-Paul Holmgren trading Gagne for Walker 2-Paul Holmgren not doing math 3-
And the Winner Is:...

Award: The
Nominees: 1- 2- 3-
And the Winner Is:...

This is how the post ends due to the trades, I  cannot finish it. It just is

Monday, June 20, 2011

Tales from a [Location TBD] Nothing

My Darling Glove -

Long time no talk, eh? Yeah, it's been a rough few months - to put it lightly. Finally get called up, make it on to the bench, make it into a game in relief but blow it in overtime and finally get a start and just completely fail. You thought I had no lateral movement before, well, ha - Game 5 was much horrendous. A fan in the stands could have done better. To make matters worse, I busted my hip and was unavailable to the media and they started saying I went AWOL and had a breakdown and all this jazz. I had family members calling me to ask if I'm okay and if I needed anything - like really? Give me a break.

So the hip - busted. Yup - that's right, had to have surgery - again. I'm starting to think I'm more fragile than Rick DiPietro. If only I could have figured out how to get a 15-year contract, then I'd be set. I can already tell next year is not going to be a pleasant one.

After the playoff debacle with the musical goalies - cause let's face it, we all stunk at one time or another during the playoffs - management decided it might be time to stop shopping off the goalie clearance rack. They went out and traded for the rights to Ilya Bryzgalov. Yeah, this guy wants serious money and serious years. He'd be kind of amusing if his arrival didn't mean a one way ticket to the waiver wire for yours truly - cause let's face it, he's Russian, Bob's Russian, Boosh is a UFA and I'm screwed. At least it appears that there will be room down on the Phantoms, with rumblings of Backlund going to Europe and Homer just giving up to the rights to everyone else on the farm aside from Stewie - just got to make the most of a bad situation. At least I can go down there and break the AHL shutout record - a whole season down there, piece of cake. At least I'll be wanted.

Maybe it's time to consider a new profession.

Dejected Faces and Heavy Sighs,


NHL Father's Day Fun

Today, err yesterday...was Father's Day and needless to say, we can assume that many NHL stars did things that made their dad's super spies picked up some of the list:

Jeff Carter: Played some hockey with his dad in London, Ontario. When Papa Carter was in net, Carter couldn't score because every shot still went high and wide.

Zdeno Chara: Attempted to have a face to face chest conversation with his dad, but then a stanchion got in the way.

Alex Burrows: Alex attempted to play a round of golf with his dad, it ended abruptly on the first hole when Old Man Burrows took his first shot and all the way on the green, Alex fell over and claimed to have a broken nose.

Greg Campbell: Thanked his dad on behalf of the entire Bruins team and fanbase for winning a Stanley Cup for the Boston Bruins.

Mark Recchi: dedicated his future day with the Stanley Cup to his dad, who won Cups with Pittsburgh in the early 90s...wait, what's that? that was Mark...oohhhh wow...oops.

Ilya Bryzgalov: Got to tell his dad about the merits of the American Capitalist System in that he's about to get a huge payday and the idiocy of the American Businessman who toss big contracts out like idiots since he's getting a huge payday.

Dan Carcillo: Asked his dad if he's proud of things he's Tweeted about.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Summer Employment Opportunities

Tonight, the NHL season ends, there will be no more hockey until September when the preseason starts. Now, as we learned from Dan Ellis, ESCROW hurts NHL players. To make up for it, several NHL players have taken offseason jobs to help them make back their lost money.

By the transitive property, if I look like
Briere and Briere looks like Paul
then I must look like Paul.

Danny Briere: The Flyers Magical Spearing Midget has acquired a job making public appearances as the doppelganger for the head writer and creator of a little known NHL Comedy Site known as Down Goes Spezza. After that, Briere's pulling double duty and playing in a Beatles cover band.
I think Timmy needs to drop weight
for this job

Tim Thomas: Will be replacing Drew Carey on "The Price is Right" for a few episodes over the summer, no one will ever notice.

Mark Recchi: Will finally open an office to practice medicine, he's a doctor you know...and Dan Ellis will tell us, it is just as hard to be a hockey player as it is a doctor. This is why Recchi's an offseason doctor only.

Joel Lundqvist: Henrik's twin will actually represent his brother at all team events in the summer so Henrik can work on being a goaltender.

Paul Holmgren: So, it's not really a job, but Homer is gonna be attending summer school to learn how to do basic math. Addition of numbers and the concept of "greater than and less than" are in school.

Peter Laviolette: Will be delivering 30 second motivational speeches to anyone who needs them.

Brian Boucher: Will be professionally unemployed come July 1 and probably forever.

Maxim LaPierre, Alex Burrows, Daniel Carcillo: Will all move to the world of swimming as they are professional divers.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Weddings and Fun

Yesterday DGS attended a cousin's wedding, needless to say, Family Goes Spezza started asking me about when I was getting married and it got me thinking, what's it like to compare hockey and a wedding.

Wedding: A bunch of people attend an event where 2 people come together, say, "I do" and hopefully live happily ever after.
Hockey: A bunch of people attend an event where 2 people come together, say, "I do" and then proceed to punch each other repeatedly in the face before sitting apart for 5 minutes.

Wedding: Some marriages are just made in heaven and you know there's perfect chemistry between the couple.
Hockey: Some lines are just made via amazing trades and the draft and you know there's perfect twin magic between the Sedins.

Wedding: When something goes wrong, there's a detailed court system in place to sort it out.
Hockey: When something goes wrong, there's a Wheel of Justice and a Flowchart.

Wedding: Feigning illness or injury in order to either gain sympathy or avoid doing something for your spouse is a common technique that is only used after years of marriage.
Hockey: Feigning illness or injury to gain sympathy from referees is a constant event for players on the Vancouver Canucks.

Wedding: Meddling Mothers-In-Law tend to break apart marriages through possible conspiracies.
Hockey: Before June 2011, The NHL conspired against the 29 teams that did NOT employ one Greg Campbell.

Wedding: Brides with a checkered history still wear white to hide their past indiscretions.
Hockey: Sean Avery isn't afraid to let people know who has picked up sloppy seconds.

Wedding: Evil, impossible to satisfy brides who are always taking heads off are known as Bride-zilla
Hockey: Matt Cooke.

Wedding: Some people choose to "elope" or get married quietly without much fanfare with the only proof of marriage being a marriage certificate
Hockey: The Phoenix Coyotes played the Columbus Blue Jackets 4 times this season, allegedly.

Wedding: A good best man will deliver a toast that doesn't involve the phrases, "down in Tijuana" "while we were on spring break" or other unsavory stories, but if it happens, the groom just has to suck it up and deal with it and hope his marriage doesn't end before it begins.
Hockey: Taunting is now punishable because it hurts feelings. This is because last year, Chris Pronger was day-to-day with hurt feelings.

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

NHL 12 Other Features

So, EA Sports unleashed new features for the NHL12 game including goalie fights, the winter classic and better better physics as well. Well, the DGS SuperSpies got their hands on several other features that will be in the game come September, and I'm doing the world a favor and sharing them.

  1. Any trade proposal made to the Philadelphia Flyers when being the GM of another team will automatically be rejected, only to be reoffered as the same trade but with the Flyers giving you a free draft pick.
  2. There will be a new subset of Be a GM Mode that has no waivers, no salary cap and is therefore math free, this will be called "Holmgren Mode"
  3. Regardless of what the negotiated amount of a contract is, if you're the GM of the Rangers, all contracts given to UFA's will show up as "6 years, 39 Million".
  4. There will be a special "Hockey in" mode that can be accessed regardless of what arena you're playing this game in. To activate it, find your television's remote control and press the "mute" button.
  5. Rick DiPietro will finally shatter into a million places when he makes save.
  6. You can now in fact, conspire against the Canucks, all you have to do is play the be a GM mode, and trade every player on the Canucks to Edmonton or the Islanders and take players like Rick DiPietro and Sieve Mason in return.
  7. In Detroit, Red Wings games will automatically have a spineless slimeball hit the ice every game, and you the player, can take control of it. In unrelated news, I wonder what Todd Bertuzzi's ratings will be.
  8. If you're the Boston Bruins and you're losing a game or if you're just bored, Zdeno Chara can now check people off the stanchion.
  9. All injury updates will appear on the screen in "Dr. Recchi Form" should you choose to activate that feature.
  10. There will now be a "real trade rumors" portion of the Be a GM Mode trade rumors feature, this feature will link every player in the game in a possible trade to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Friday, June 3, 2011

Prospect Profile: Matt Read

If you’ve been reading my recent columns you’ve probably noticed that I keep mentioning Flyers prospect (yes, contrary to popular belief, the Flyers have a couple prospects out there) Matt Read. Read is a forward out of Bemidji State University (BSU) in Minnesota. He just signed a 3 year contract with the Flyers with a 900K cap hit, but most importantly, it’s a 1-way contract which means, he’s got to (possibly…the NHL CBA is conflicting on this) clear waivers right away.
Now, obviously giving him a 3-year 1-way contract means that someone in the Flyers front office thinks highly of Mr. Read, so in order to show what Matt Read could become, I’m going to draw some comparisons to some current Flyers players, Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk, Darroll Powe and Andreas Nodl. I have reasons for picking these 4 players which I will explain quickly here, and in more detail as the profile moves on.

Claude Giroux: In limited AHL duty, Giroux and Read put up eerily similar numbers which later on in this post I will break down. Also, both players are roughly the same size (Read’s 5’10 180, Giroux 5’11 175) so you know what you’re getting in terms of appearance. (I haven’t seen enough video to tell if their skating ability is the same
James van Riemsdyk: Read’s college numbers were similar to JvR’s which I will break down in detail later.
Darroll Powe: Powe, like Read, is a “late bloomer” and Read’s already 25.
Andreas Nodl: both Read and Nodl are products of the USHL then WHCA so since their careers followed similar paths in the past, I’m going to use Nodl as another point of reference as to what Matt Read could be.

Now let’s put Matt Read’s numbers on display (Source is HockeyDB)
Matt Read:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  
2006-07  Des Moines Buccaneers       USHL   58   28   34   62  110
2007-08  Bemidji State University    CHA    36    9   18   27   37
2008-09  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   15   25   40   50
2009-10  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   19   22   41   32
2010-11  Bemidji State University    WCHA   37   22   13   35   34
2010-11  Adirondack Phantoms         AHL    11    7    6   13    6

Yes, I realize, there is no NHL experience up there and very little AHL experience on the board, so we need points of reference to NHL players to hopefully come up with a possible extension as to what this means.  Easiest way to do that, start with the beginning of Mr. Read’s career, the USHL and look at another USHL product on the Flyers, Andreas Nodl.

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  
2004-05  Sioux Falls Stampede        USHL   44    7    9   16   24  
2005-06  Sioux Falls Stampede        USHL   58   29   30   59   16  

In Nodl’s better USHL season compared to Read’s only USHL season the 2 players put up comparable offensive numbers. Seriously, they’re eerily similar.
Both Nodl and Read moved onto the WCHA after that. Nodl would play at St. Cloud State while Read played at BSU. I like this comparison because since both guys played in the USHL and WCHA they faced rather similar competition at both levels.
Here’s Nodl’s numbers:
2006-07  St. Cloud State             WCHA   40   18   28   46   32
2007-08  St. Cloud State             WCHA   40   18   26   44   22

And Read:
2007-08  Bemidji State University    CHA    36    9   18   27   37
2008-09  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   15   25   40   50
2009-10  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   19   22   41   32
2010-11  Bemidji State University    WCHA   37   22   13   35   34

Again, 2 very similar players, both were over a point a game for the most part, with Matt Read having an edge in terms of goals per game ratio (when discounting his 1st year which seems to be an outlier). Another thing to notice, is with the goals, Nodl stayed the same while Matt Read improved every season, this is something of which it is important to take note.
Also fun fact: Read put up better college numbers than JvR, granted JvR played in the tougher Hockey East division:
JvR’s numbers:
Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM
2007-08  U. of New Hampshire         H-Eas  31   11   23   34   36
2008-09  U. of New Hampshire         H-Eas  36   17   23   40   47

Also all 3 of these players out produced Darroll Powe in college:
Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM
2003-04  Princeton University        ECAC   29    4    5    9   28
2004-05  Princeton University        ECAC   30    5    2    7   41
2005-06  Princeton University        ECAC   27    6   10   16   48
2006-07  Princeton University        ECAC   34   13   15   28   63

Now of course, we all know that Nodl, prior to this past season, has had trouble scoring earning the nickname No-Goal-Nodl but this is where you’ll notice a huge difference in their progression up the minors, Matt Read (in a limited sample) produced in the AHL:
Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM 
2010-11  Adirondack Phantoms         AHL    11    7    6   13    6

Compared to Nodl:
Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM
2008-09  Philadelphia Phantoms       AHL    39    6   14   20   20  
2009-10  Adirondack Phantoms         AHL    65   14   20   34   24

Now, in Read’s limited sample we see that Read was over a point-a-game player in the AHL, while Nodl was putting up .52 Points Per Game, in this limited sample, it’s easy to see that Nodl’s game dropped off when he hit the AHL, and again in the NHL. Do you know what current Flyers player put up similar AHL numbers than Read?
Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM
2008-09  Philadelphia Phantoms       AHL    33   17   17   34   22

That’s Claude Giroux in the AHL right there. If you adjust Matt Read’s numbers for the same 33 games Claude Giroux played, Read would have had 21G 18A 18PIMs which means, Matt Read is better than rookie Claude Giroux.
I am not saying Read is better than Giroux right now, Giroux is 23 and only getting better, Matt Read is 25 and about to peak so it’s probably fair to expect something similar to Giroux’s rookie season for Matt Read, so let’s pull Claude Giroux’s rookie NHL season:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM
2008-09  Philadelphia Flyers         NHL    42    9   18   27   14

Claude Giroux put up decent numbers as rookie; now let’s adjust those numbers for 82 games played.
The 82 game adjust numbers
Goals: 17.57
Assists: 35.14
Points:  52.71
Those numbers, rounded off, come to 18 goals, 35 assists and 53 points, and that total, should look creepishly similar to a current Flyers player who’s a couple years older than Matt Read; his name is Ville Leino. Since Read’s production in the AHL had a slightly skewed goal-assist ratio compared to Giroux I am going to assume it’s accounted in the fact that the 2010-11 Phantoms had no talent for Read to work with compared to Giroux’s 08-09 Phantoms who were not completely terrible. Because of this, I would like to think that Matt Read has the potential to produce like Claude Giroux or James van Riemsdyk did as a rookie, but without the hype of becoming a top superstar.
Conclusion: If Matt Read progresses as his numbers indicate, at 900K he’s the perfect replacement for Ville Leino. If you can get 50 points from Read at 900K or 55 points from Leino at 2.5M against the Cap, the 5 points are worth the 1.6M that Matt Read would save because that could be used to acquire a goalie who would save goals on the other end.
Conversely, if Matt Read goes bust like Nodl did as rookie, I highly doubt anyone would claim him on waivers on the way down, which would free up the Flyers to make another move, such as importing a European player or making a trade.
The Flyers NEED Matt Read to be closer to Leino than Nodl however, because, the Flyers lack draft picks to restock the system. I’ve run the numbers, now the question is: who is Matt Read? Ville Leino or Andreas Nodl.