Tales From A Pre-season Nothing

Hello Glove -

Long time no talk, eh? Guess what - we're starting tonight. No really, someone thought it would be a good idea to let us start. Third pre-season game of the season in London, Ontario. At least he has most of the regulars on defense to help me out - Timonen, Coburn, Carle, Meszaros - could be worse.

I'm not really sure what this means for me - they have Ilya Bryzgalov and Sergei Bobrovsky - the two goalies they are more than likely going with for the season. Of course there is a logjam for Adirondack with me, Johan Backlund and this Jason Bacashihua guy. Not sure why they signed Bacashilhua. Now the three of us have to battle it out for those two spots. Maybe Backs will head over to Europe - one can only hope.

The way I see it - tonight I have to be good. Of course, it's hard to have something to compare to - Bob gets a shutout in his first start (first time a Flyers goalie has done that since yours truly in May 2010 - I'm sure you remember). Then Bryz gives up 3, but you can't really blame him for all of them. Don't know if I can match Bob's shutout, though that sure would be nice. At this point, I'll settle for keeping it out of the five-hole.

Anyway, I'm sure it's just a matter of time before it's back to the waiver wire once again - then off to Adirondack. At least they love me up there. Nice to be wanted. Sigh. Another season riding the bus. And I might not even be the best guy down there because that Braden Holtby guy got stuck down there another season - just like me.

Wait, where was I - oh right - starting tonight. Legs closed. Don't f*ck up.

Positive Thoughts and Nervous Smiles,

Leights

Other Bryzgalov Questions (WITH ANSWERS!) so it's the Bryzgalov FAQ

So, Devils writer Kevin from In Lou We Trust tweeted this earlier.

(See PetShark, I can put links in new windows!)

Anyway, as you see he asked the question, but luckily we have an answer....

Bryzgalov is Russian Toskala.


Anyway, Ilya Bryzgalov has a lot of questions and we have answers.

1. Q: Why you heff to be mad?
   A: Philadelphia makes 2 trips to WPG and 2 OTT and 2 to BUF, this is 6 games too many for cold.
   
   
   
   
2. Q: (When Bryz watches Hulu/YouTube) Why you heff to see ad?
   A: Because most people on the planet have yet to sucker Ed Snider into overpaying for their services so they sell commercials for cash.
   
   
   
   
3. Q: (When watching Matt Cooke, Trevor Gillies and Raffi Torres) Why you heff to be bad?
   A: These are headshot artists, they have no talent.
   
   
   
4. Q: Why you heff to be sad?
   A: Dan Ellis cries when he sees the Bryz contract. Every single day.
   
   
   
5. Q: Why you heff to be glad?
   A: Ville Leino and Christian Ehrhoff are not ruining my team's salary cap. There's hope for Holmgren.
   
   
   
6. Q: Why you heff to be rad?
   A: Evgeni Nabokov thinks he's cool and "rad" by not reporting but really...he's just old.
   
   
   
7. Q: Why you heff to be dad?
   A: Oskars Bartulis already is.
   
   
   
8. Q: Why you heff many pad?
   A: This room, with many pads, is where Rick DiPietro lives, we don't want him breaking an arm by walking around.

There, now you know.

NHL Stars Tips To Beating The Heat

Yesterday, it was 103 degrees in my hometown. That's effin hot. Luckily I stayed cool because of a great AC and these tips for staying cool that were submitted to me by the amazing DGS Super Spies. Sadly, unlike the Miami Heat, this head wave doesn't disappear after 3. Luckily, here's how some NHL-ers are beating the heat.



Jonathan Toews: Walked outside wearing a winter coat, gloves, ski cap, and boots, stared at the air around him until it froze to an icy -62 Fahrenheit.

Ilya Bryzgalov: Gave the following quote, "Why you heff to be mad? Just use $51M to buy big air conditioner."

Dan Ellis: Commented that, "it takes more talent to survive in 100+ degree heat than it does to be a brain surgeon"

The Atlanta Thrashers: Packed up and moved to Winnipeg, and were never seen again.

Taylor Hall: Called Tyler Seguin and said, "that Cup doesn't keep you cool like Edmonton does."

Dany Heatley: Demanded a trade to Edmonton, Calgary or a demotion to ECHL Alaska.

Glen Sather: Signed the thermometer to a 12 year 78M contract because, "there's no way mercury gets cold in NYC winters."...he doesn't realize that a "No Movement Clause" doesn't mean the mercury will stay hot...L-O-L Rangers...L-O-L

Matt Cooke: Elbowed himself in the head, so he could sleep through the heat.

Paul Holmgren: Didn't get out of the heat because he didn't realize that 103 is higher than 75. He started suffering from heatstroke, the first symptom, he said, "Today, I will use math while making decisions."

Rick DiPietro: Ended up on LTIR after a bead of sweat fell off his head and onto his leg causing his ACL to tear.

Sean Couturier: Thanked his lucky stars that the 50-contract limit keeps him in the QMJHL.

Translating Bryzgalov

Why you heff to be mad? It's only game....

Oh Ilya, you think you speak a language that no one understands...but I do, see, I'm Russian, just like you.


So with that, I'm gonna share with the world, the ability to understand Bryzgalov using quotes from his interview found here at BSH.


Quote: "I am excited to join a great organization with a rich history. That was my first reaction and I expect a lot from our work together."
Meaning: "I am excited to join a rich organization with a great history of overpaying players. My first reacion was $$$$$$$$ and I expect a big bank account, small island and possibly my own rocketship from our work together."

Quote: "First of all, when I came to Philadelphia, I met Mr. [Ed] Snider, Paul Holmgren and other people in the organization. We talked to each other and they told me the philosophy of the team. I like the philosophy of the team - winning, and everything in Philadelphia. I like this philosophy and it's my philosophy too.... This is a good spot for me because I like the idea and philosophy of the team."

Meaning: MONEY, they're giving me MONEY! MONEY MONEY OH MY GOD I HAVE MORE MONEY THAN DAN ELLIS!

Quote: "Not yet, not yet. He is a great guy. He's a good person and a big physical defenseman who can score, who can move the puck. He has everything that a number one defenseman needs. He's got size, he's got skill, he has character." (He's referring to Christopher Robert Pronger)

Meaning: OH GOD! Pronger's elbows scare me!

Quote: "Under NHL rules you can be traded any day and management made decisions to make some adjustments and we just have to accept it and play it."

Meaning: I know that I'm gone after 4 or 5 years. But I'm gonna be rich!

Steven Stamkos to The Flyers- Bad Idea

Steven Stamkos to the Flyers? Bad idea.

To elaborate, here's why:

(All Numbers from @CapGeek)

If the Flyers were to sign Stamkos at say, 7.1M per season for 15 years, and fork over their next 4 First Round picks, this is what the Flyers would be looking at:



Forwards:
Hartnell 4.2 NTC, Briere 6.5 NMC, Stamkos 7.1
JvR 1.654, Giroux 3.75, Schenn 3.1
Versteeg 3.083, Betts 700K, Nodl 850K
Read 900K, Shelley 1.1M

Total Cap Hit: 29.904M


Defense:
Pronger 4.921 35+, Timonen 6.3 NMC
Meszaros 4, Coburn 3.2
Carle 3.4375, Bartulis 600K

Total Cap Hit: 22.4585

Goalies
Bryzgalov: 5.666
Bobrovsky: 1.75

Total Cal Hit: 7.416

Team Total: 29.904+22.4856+7.416= 59.806M committed salary

LTIR: Ian Lapperiere

Waive to AHL: Matt Walker, Michael Leighton



So it looks good, right? Stamkos is a Flyer and there's 4.4944, but wait...this isn't a full roster. For the sake of ease of math, I'll round up the cap number to 4.5M free.


4.5 Million and the following needs:


a Number 6 Defenseman on the UFA market, a UFA 13th Forward and 2 RFA's that need to be signed, Simmonds and Voracek. Well, by value of production the RFA offers to Simmonds and Voracek should be 1.75 for Simmonds and 2.5 for Voracek so, that totals 4.25 for the 2 RFA's meaning there's 250K for a 13th forward and a 6th Defenseman.


Well, obviously Sestito makes Jody Shelley expendable, so waive Jody Shelley, that means the Flyers now have 1.35 free in cap money, call up Eric Wellwood at 580K as the replacement for Jody Shelley and the Flyers have 770K free for 2 roster spots, a 6th Defenseman and a 12th Forward.



Ok, so, maybe Brayden Schenn starts the season in the AHL, freeing up 3.1M in cap room, but then Ville Leino is resigned at 2.67 to replace him so, when the 3.1 of Schenn is added to the 770K and then the 2.67 for Leino is factored in; the Flyers have 1.2M in Cap Space and 2 roster spots open, a 6th D-man and a 13th Forward who both come in at the league minimum.


Call up Zac Rinaldo as the 13th forward and the Flyers have 655K in capspace and 1 Defenseman that needs to be filled.


655K, one defenseman is easy to find, but then...the Flyers have ZERO space for anyone to get hurt. If any player, misses a game due to injury, the Flyers have no space to make an injury callup as LTIR doesn't kick in unless a player misses 10 games or 24 days.

Ok, but Matt, there's solutions like these:


Trade Versteeg's 3,083M for a 1.5M D-man: Problem, the Flyers shopped Versteeg, there were no takers...this doesn't work


Trade Carle for a 1.5M D-man and a mid round pick to balance the lack of value coming back: Problem- Carle may be average without Pronger, but if the Flyers deal any defenseman not named Pronger or Timonen, the blueline becomes hugely weakened.


Trade Timonen/Briere: I would LOVE to trade these players, they're horribly overpaid, but both have FULL NMC's, the team can ask them to waive it, but here's how that would go:

Holmgren: Hey, can you waive your NMC?
Timonen/Briere: Or what?
Holmgren: We will waive you
Timonen/Briere: You can't, it's an NMC not NTC.
Holmgren: We will buy you out.
Timonen/Briere: You can't, it's an NMC.
Holmgren: Oh, uhh, I guess you have me in a corner here.
Timonen/Briere: DUH!


Get the picture?

Trade Hartnell for a 2.5M D-man: This could work, Harntell has agreed to waive his NTC, if the Flyers can find the right deal, it could work. All they need is a trade partner that needs to hit the salary floor and can give a decent D-man back the other way. If Colorado would deal Erik Johnson for Hartnell and Carle, it could work nicely, but this deal has a less than 10% chance of happening.

Waive Hartnell: Actually, this one works...if you're willing to lose Hartnell for free...or risk him at half price on Recall Waivers

If you're trading Giroux/JvR to make the cap-space, well your hurting the team in the long run and I refuse to crunch any numbers on that idea.

Anyway, see my point, Steven Stamkos isn't worth this headache for the Flyers, unless he's guaranteed to keep the whole team healthy AND score 60 goals.

Or the Flyers can just trade Bryzgalov to Colorado for Erik Johnson and free up 3.06M, resign Brian Boucher to backup Bobrovsky...I'd say this would never happen, but Holmgren dealt Jeff Carter before his 11 year extension kicked in....

And for Stephen:

Stamkos would be a good fit on the Colorado Avalanche. They have the Cap Space. This wouldn't be a problem.

NHL Father's Day Fun

Today, err yesterday...was Father's Day and needless to say, we can assume that many NHL stars did things that made their dad's happy...my super spies picked up some of the list:

Jeff Carter: Played some hockey with his dad in London, Ontario. When Papa Carter was in net, Carter couldn't score because every shot still went high and wide.

Zdeno Chara: Attempted to have a face to face chest conversation with his dad, but then a stanchion got in the way.

Alex Burrows: Alex attempted to play a round of golf with his dad, it ended abruptly on the first hole when Old Man Burrows took his first shot and all the way on the green, Alex fell over and claimed to have a broken nose.

Greg Campbell: Thanked his dad on behalf of the entire Bruins team and fanbase for winning a Stanley Cup for the Boston Bruins.

Mark Recchi: dedicated his future day with the Stanley Cup to his dad, who won Cups with Pittsburgh in the early 90s...wait, what's that? that was Mark...oohhhh wow...oops.

Ilya Bryzgalov: Got to tell his dad about the merits of the American Capitalist System in that he's about to get a huge payday and the idiocy of the American Businessman who toss big contracts out like idiots since he's getting a huge payday.

Dan Carcillo: Asked his dad if he's proud of things he's Tweeted about.

Don't Trade Carter, Trade Hartnell Instead

(Author’s Note: I use the term SO to mean shootout in this article)

(Editor's Note: No humor today, I just realized it's been almost a week since I updated this site and I wanted to be sure you guys didn't think I forgot this place existed so I'm double posting a piece I wrote for HFL on why I think Carter should stay and Hartnell should go.)

The guys over at Broad Street Hockey have written several posts as to why Jeff Carter is not worth trading for a goalie. I myself have gone on record as saying the only player I could accept trading Jeff Carter for is Shea Weber. Anyway, I figure it best that to justify these feelings I should actually show the math behind it. In order to show why Carter is not worth a goalie, I will compare Jeff Carter + Sergei Bobrovsky to Ilya Bryzgalov.

Now, this comparison is based on an attempt to prove that losing Jeff Carter’s production will NOT be worth the bonus of a goalie. Think of it this way, the goals Carter scores will outpace the goals prevented by acquiring a top A+ talent goalie.

Jeff Carter had 36G 30A this season for a total of 66 points: that means that Jeff Carter had a hand in 66 goals in 80 games, this means that Jeff Carter created 0.825 Goals per game. This means that in order to replace Jeff Carter’s production, you need to account for AT LEAST 0.825 goals per game in whatever comes back AND keep the team under the salary cap while doing so. So, let’s try to do that shall we. Sergei Bobrovsky had a .915 SV% for a GAA of 2.59 after allowing 130 goals on 1527 shots in just over 3000 minutes of game time in 54 games played. Brian Boucher’s stats were almost identical so using Bob is a fair comparison.

So, when you multiply out Jeff Carter’s offensive production for 54 games instead of 80, you get 44.55 points, which in order to make the Flyers come out ahead means that I will round up to 45 points. So the new goalie would need to allow 85 goals in 54 games…that’s a pace that would DESTROY the current NHL record. The save percentage (based on the shots Bob faced) would be 99.944%. I’ll stop for a second: 99.944 SV%. That is unheard of. That is IMPOSSIBLE. The NHL record for SV% was set this past season by Tim Thomas, it was 93.8%. Now obviously, I’m not completely insane, I know that another forward would take the spot of Jeff Carter on the Flyers top-6.

So rather than stick to that 99.944% number I’m going to set a bar for this new goalie and look at what the replacement for Jeff Carter would have to put up in order to replace the 66 goals that Carter created. Let’s assume that the Flyers land Ilya Bryzgalov. For 3 of the last 4 seasons, Ilya has put up a 92 or 92.1 SV% and has a career SV% of 91.6%. I am going to be generous and say Bryzgalov posts a 92.5 SV% in 55 games as the Flyers goalie. I’m using 55 games because that’s close to what Bobrovsky played as the ‘starter’ this season for the Flyers. Now, let’s assume that because of the age of the Flyers star defenders, Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen, that the Flyers defense allows more shots through on this goalie, whoever he is, so in the 55 games, the Flyers allow 1600 shots on goal. This is an average of just over 29 shots per game up from 28.27 shots per game allowed against Bob last year.

To have a 92.5 SV% Bryzgalov would have to stop 1480 of 1600 shots, which means he allows 120 goals in 55 games for a GAA of 2.18 (this assumes no OT/SO or EN goals and that Bryz plays 60 minutes every game.)

Comparatively speaking, Bob’s 91.5 SV% during the same time: 1464 saves on 1600 shots or 136 goals allowed in 55 games for a GAA of 2.47. (Same rules regarding OT/SO/EN situations.) This means that Bryzgalov is stopping 16 goals that Carter would have scored. Keep the number 16 in mind for later. Jeff Carter created 66 goals in 80 games, since we’re basing our goalies on 55 games, Carter would create 46 goals in 55 games. (It’s actually 45.375, but I’m rounding up which guarantees that if the Flyers ‘break even’ in production terms they’re actually a tiny bit ahead.)

Now, since Bryzgalov is a 16 goal improvement over Bobrovsky in 55 games, we can subtract that 16 from Jeff Carter’s 46 in the 55 games to leave us with 30 goals that need to be accounted for in 55 games or .545 goals per game. This leads to the next question, where do you get a player who creates this type of offense. Well the first thing we’ll do is find out what ‘this kind of offense’ is over an 82 game season, the answer 42.73 points which we will round up to 43. Sounds easy right, finding a 43 point player; well it’s not, because guess what? Carter’s 5.27 cap hit is now on Bryzgalov which means you need to find 43 (or more) points in a player who (according to my calculations) would make less 2.625 against the cap.

Sounds easy right, but wait, ONE MORE THING, you have to replace Ville Leino’s 54 points (per season) as well with another 800K (Leino’s old salary) on the cap, which means, you need to get 2 players, who produce 97 points combined in 82 games with less than 3.1M to do it. This cap number assumes a 62M cap and LTIR of Ian Laperriere, waiving of Shelley, Leighton and Walker and resigning Nodl and Powe to reasonable hits based on their RFA qualifying numbers.

Now, there’s some internal solutions, for one: James van Riemsdyk will surely improve on his 21G 19A effort from 2010-11; 55 points for JvR seems reasonable so that increase of 15 points on his side comes out of the 97 points and knocks it down to 82. So we’re down 2 players costing less than 3.1M AND producing 82 points combined. Assuming Matt Read makes the NHL roster because of his 1-way contract, his NCAA numbers and a limited AHL sample suggest that he could produce like Andreas Nodl did this year, I’m going to be generous and give Matt Read 27 points over a full season. Read has a 900K cap hit. This leaves 2.2M in cap space and 55 points needed just to break even in terms of a full season of production. Can this be done? Yes if Ville Leino signs for 2.2 (he wants 3.5 or more) and has the exact same season, the Flyers break even on dealing Carter for Bryzgalov.

But I propose a counter solution. Trade Scott Hartnell (who has already once agreed his NTC, in 2009 to EDM for Sheldon Souray, but Souray would not waive his NTC) which frees up 4.2 in cap space. Have Matt Read’s 27 points fill in for Hartnell’s projected 50 points then use the remaining (2.625 (cap space)+3.3 Hartnell/Read difference) 5.925 to sign Vokoun at 4 and put 1.925 to signing another 25 point player (they exist at that price and my vote goes to Eric Belanger due to the fact that he’s also solid defensively as well) Here’s why: Vokoun’s save% will be about 92.2% behind the Flyers D and based off his career numbers that could be an understatement, he could very easily put up the 92.5 SV% I put on Bryzgalov. If Vokoun comes in he’s going to stop 11-15 more goals than Bob (92.2-92.4375 SV%) for a GAA of 2.27-2.20. (Again, like earlier, these calculations are based off 1600 shots faced in 55 games)

This means that the Flyers would come out ahead in terms of goals (same offensive production from Read + Belanger in Leino and Hartnell’s slots when JvR’s point increase and the fact that Carter’s got a 16 goal cushion because he’s staying.) And that’s how you win, by scoring more than the other team. This team, based on my calculations with these moves will do just that.

Other Things NHL Players Have Forgotten

So, earlier this weekend Flyers Captain Michael Richards tweeted about forgetting to pay his cable bill

Oh Richie, were you also expecting a phone call
informing you that the 2nd round of the playoffs
had started as well?

Well, honestly Mr. Richards isn't the only person in the NHL to forget something, as a matter of fact, many NHL players and personalities have been known to forget things, and here at DGS, we have the list.



Paul Holmgren: Has forgotten how to do basic math and has given the Flyers cap problems for at least the next 5 years.

Dan Ellis: Has claimed that he "forgot" to pay his ESCROW.

Nick Lidstrom: Is so old that he has in fact, forgotten to retire.

Paul Holmgren: Has forgotten the rules of the CBA pertaining to 35+ contracts and gave Pronger 7 years and a cap hit of 4.921.

The Toronto Maple Leafs: Have forgotten what the playoffs are.

Joe Thornton: Has apparently forgotten that he is playing in the playoffs right now.

Paul Holmgren: Has forgotten, like his predecessor, what "goaltending" is.

Kyle Wellwood: Forgets to stick to his diet.

Evgeni Nabokov: Forgot that the Islanders do NOT yet have a new arena and ended up lost on Long Island because he absolutely thought that there was no way an NHL team would ever play in the Nassau Coliseum.

Michael Leighton: Has forgotten how to close his 5-hole.

Paul Holmgren: Forgot that Michael Leighton doesn't know how to close his 5 hole and therefore gave him a 1.55 cap hit.

Chris Pronger: Would like to forget this year from hell.

Scott Hartnell and Kris Versteeg: Have both forgotten how to skate which led to the fun of Hartnell Down and Versteeg Down counts.

Jonathan Toews: Has forgotten how to blink, show emotion, and display normal.

The Boston Bruins: Have forgotten that it's perfectly OK to score when you're up a man.

Paul Holmgren: Has forgotten what a draft pick is due to the fact that the Flyers haven't had one in forever.

Roberto Luongo, and many of the Vancouver Canucks: Have forgotten the difference between a diving pool and an ice rink.

Matt Cooke: Will most likely soon forget the lesson he learned from his 17 game suspension for a headshot and will end up elbowing Gregory Campbell in the head early next season.

Gary Bettman: Has obviously forgotten that he doesn't work for the NBA anymore.

Patrick Kane: Has forgotten what it's like to be sober

The Flyers Entire Defensive Corps: Randomly forgets how to play defense leaving Brian Boucher alone against Zdeno Chara slap shots.

Daniel Carcillo: Forgot that some things, like questions involving sexual turn ons, are probably better left to realm of a "DM" on Twitter.

Ilya Bryzgalov: Forgot that the playoffs actually count.