If you’ve been reading my recent columns you’ve probably noticed that I keep mentioning Flyers prospect (yes, contrary to popular belief, the Flyers have a couple prospects out there) Matt Read. Read is a forward out of Bemidji State University (BSU) in Minnesota. He just signed a 3 year contract with the Flyers with a 900K cap hit, but most importantly, it’s a 1-way contract which means, he’s got to (possibly…the NHL CBA is conflicting on this) clear waivers right away.
Now, obviously giving him a 3-year 1-way contract means that someone in the Flyers front office thinks highly of Mr. Read, so in order to show what Matt Read could become, I’m going to draw some comparisons to some current Flyers players, Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk, Darroll Powe and Andreas Nodl. I have reasons for picking these 4 players which I will explain quickly here, and in more detail as the profile moves on.
Claude Giroux: In limited AHL duty, Giroux and Read put up eerily similar numbers which later on in this post I will break down. Also, both players are roughly the same size (Read’s 5’10 180, Giroux 5’11 175) so you know what you’re getting in terms of appearance. (I haven’t seen enough video to tell if their skating ability is the same
James van Riemsdyk: Read’s college numbers were similar to JvR’s which I will break down in detail later.
Darroll Powe: Powe, like Read, is a “late bloomer” and Read’s already 25.
Andreas Nodl: both Read and Nodl are products of the USHL then WHCA so since their careers followed similar paths in the past, I’m going to use Nodl as another point of reference as to what Matt Read could be.
Now let’s put Matt Read’s numbers on display (Source is HockeyDB)
Matt Read:
Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM
2006-07 Des Moines Buccaneers USHL 58 28 34 62 110
2007-08 Bemidji State University CHA 36 9 18 27 37
2008-09 Bemidji State University CHA 37 15 25 40 50
2009-10 Bemidji State University CHA 37 19 22 41 32
2010-11 Bemidji State University WCHA 37 22 13 35 34
2010-11 Adirondack Phantoms AHL 11 7 6 13 6
Yes, I realize, there is no NHL experience up there and very little AHL experience on the board, so we need points of reference to NHL players to hopefully come up with a possible extension as to what this means. Easiest way to do that, start with the beginning of Mr. Read’s career, the USHL and look at another USHL product on the Flyers, Andreas Nodl.
Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM
2004-05 Sioux Falls Stampede USHL 44 7 9 16 24
2005-06 Sioux Falls Stampede USHL 58 29 30 59 16
In Nodl’s better USHL season compared to Read’s only USHL season the 2 players put up comparable offensive numbers. Seriously, they’re eerily similar.
Both Nodl and Read moved onto the WCHA after that. Nodl would play at St. Cloud State while Read played at BSU. I like this comparison because since both guys played in the USHL and WCHA they faced rather similar competition at both levels.
Here’s Nodl’s numbers:
2006-07 St. Cloud State WCHA 40 18 28 46 32
2007-08 St. Cloud State WCHA 40 18 26 44 22
And Read:
2007-08 Bemidji State University CHA 36 9 18 27 37
2008-09 Bemidji State University CHA 37 15 25 40 50
2009-10 Bemidji State University CHA 37 19 22 41 32
2010-11 Bemidji State University WCHA 37 22 13 35 34
Again, 2 very similar players, both were over a point a game for the most part, with Matt Read having an edge in terms of goals per game ratio (when discounting his 1st year which seems to be an outlier). Another thing to notice, is with the goals, Nodl stayed the same while Matt Read improved every season, this is something of which it is important to take note.
Also fun fact: Read put up better college numbers than JvR, granted JvR played in the tougher Hockey East division:
JvR’s numbers:
Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM
2007-08 U. of New Hampshire H-Eas 31 11 23 34 36
2008-09 U. of New Hampshire H-Eas 36 17 23 40 47
Also all 3 of these players out produced Darroll Powe in college:
Powe
Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM
2003-04 Princeton University ECAC 29 4 5 9 28
2004-05 Princeton University ECAC 30 5 2 7 41
2005-06 Princeton University ECAC 27 6 10 16 48
2006-07 Princeton University ECAC 34 13 15 28 63
Now of course, we all know that Nodl, prior to this past season, has had trouble scoring earning the nickname No-Goal-Nodl but this is where you’ll notice a huge difference in their progression up the minors, Matt Read (in a limited sample) produced in the AHL:
Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM
2010-11 Adirondack Phantoms AHL 11 7 6 13 6
Compared to Nodl:
Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM
2008-09 Philadelphia Phantoms AHL 39 6 14 20 20
2009-10 Adirondack Phantoms AHL 65 14 20 34 24
Now, in Read’s limited sample we see that Read was over a point-a-game player in the AHL, while Nodl was putting up .52 Points Per Game, in this limited sample, it’s easy to see that Nodl’s game dropped off when he hit the AHL, and again in the NHL. Do you know what current Flyers player put up similar AHL numbers than Read?
Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM
2008-09 Philadelphia Phantoms AHL 33 17 17 34 22
That’s Claude Giroux in the AHL right there. If you adjust Matt Read’s numbers for the same 33 games Claude Giroux played, Read would have had 21G 18A 18PIMs which means, Matt Read is better than rookie Claude Giroux.
I am not saying Read is better than Giroux right now, Giroux is 23 and only getting better, Matt Read is 25 and about to peak so it’s probably fair to expect something similar to Giroux’s rookie season for Matt Read, so let’s pull Claude Giroux’s rookie NHL season:
Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM
2008-09 Philadelphia Flyers NHL 42 9 18 27 14
Claude Giroux put up decent numbers as rookie; now let’s adjust those numbers for 82 games played.
The 82 game adjust numbers
Goals: 17.57
Assists: 35.14
Points: 52.71
Those numbers, rounded off, come to 18 goals, 35 assists and 53 points, and that total, should look creepishly similar to a current Flyers player who’s a couple years older than Matt Read; his name is Ville Leino. Since Read’s production in the AHL had a slightly skewed goal-assist ratio compared to Giroux I am going to assume it’s accounted in the fact that the 2010-11 Phantoms had no talent for Read to work with compared to Giroux’s 08-09 Phantoms who were not completely terrible. Because of this, I would like to think that Matt Read has the potential to produce like Claude Giroux or James van Riemsdyk did as a rookie, but without the hype of becoming a top superstar.
Conclusion: If Matt Read progresses as his numbers indicate, at 900K he’s the perfect replacement for Ville Leino. If you can get 50 points from Read at 900K or 55 points from Leino at 2.5M against the Cap, the 5 points are worth the 1.6M that Matt Read would save because that could be used to acquire a goalie who would save goals on the other end.
Conversely, if Matt Read goes bust like Nodl did as rookie, I highly doubt anyone would claim him on waivers on the way down, which would free up the Flyers to make another move, such as importing a European player or making a trade.
The Flyers NEED Matt Read to be closer to Leino than Nodl however, because, the Flyers lack draft picks to restock the system. I’ve run the numbers, now the question is: who is Matt Read? Ville Leino or Andreas Nodl.
