The Laviolette Line Lottery

Well, it seems that Lavi is at it again, just pulling lines at random and inserting them on to the ice. The thing is, these lines aren't random, in fact, the lines come from a come from a long list of rules that must be adhered to. Luckily, the DGS SuperSpies obtained this list and we're gonna share it.


1. Due to the lack of centers, Couturier, Briere, Schenn, Giroux and Talbot are not allowed to be on a line together.

2. Scott Hartnell falls for linemates, he has to removed from a line after falling to prevent the center from possibly having relations with his wife.

3. Danny Briere will take a stick foul if left with the same linemates for more than 2 consecutive shifts.

4. Paul Holmgren believes that changing Couturier's line fast enough will actually slow down time allowing him to slide Couturier even though he plays in 82 games.

5. After a shift, when Matt Read says, "and I learned that at Bemidji" State," any forward within ear shot has to go to the lockerroom to look up how to spell Bemidji.

6. Sometimes players miss shifts on account of being dazed from Chris Pronger's left elbow.

7. Jake Voracek hasn't quite learned the system of "rely on your talented young center to get you the puck"

8. Due to the smaller ice surface of North America, while sitting on the bench, Jagr actually thinks he's playing the game.

9. Peter Laviolette rotates his forwards on account of not having goalies to rotate anymore.

10. Paul Holmgren accidentally called out line changes from the GM's office...needless to say, like his math skills, his memory of lines leaves much to be desired.

Not So Different, 2011-12 Flyers and 2009 Yankees

Last week, I did the similarities between the Flyers and Maple Leafs, this week, I started noticing some parallels between the current Flyers and the New York Yankees of 2009.

In 2008, a long term core of Yankees disappointed many by flat out missing the playoffs.

In 2011, a long term core of Flyers disappointed many by going down without a fight in the playoffs (round 2)

After this meltdown, fans of both teams wanted the coach/manager to be fired. (I had posts on my facebook wall and tweets regarding Lavi, Yankees ALWAYS want to fire the manager when the team loses)

Both teams blew up several positions in the ensuing offseason that showed a change in team philosophy:

The Yankees: instead of signing big bats and offense, went out and grabbed 2 starting pitchers at insane contracts pushing their young pitchers (Hughes, Chamberlain) back in the rotation/to the bullpen.

The Flyers: traded some top offensive players (Carter and Richards) to free up cap space to sign a starting goaltender (Ilya Bryzgalov) to an insane contract pushing a young up and coming goalie (BOB) to the pine.

Both teams saw a star player who was formerly a top offensive player begin to take a back seat

The Yankees: Alex Rodriguez began to see less time at 3B and more time as a DH while Eric Hinske was acquired to come off the bench and take his place more and more

The Flyers: Scott Hartnell's ice time dropped in favor of the newly acquired Wayne Simmonds.

Both teams acquired a player via trade with a solid classy personality

The Yankees: Put Nick Swisher in RF

The Flyers: Put Wayne Simmonds on the 2nd line

Both teams found a solid rookie who would turn into something that was somewhat overhyped given his actual role.

The Yankees: Francisco Cervelli (Catcher) came up from AAA to his over .300 while filling in for an injured Jorge Posada. He eventually gave the reigns back to Posada but some of his solid hitting helped the 09 Yankees to the World Series.

The Flyers: Matt Read, an undrafted UFA out of Bemidji State University, came out of nowhere during camp to wow everyone with a lot of talent before earning a spot in the Top 9 on opening night. He's seen some top 6 minutes, but will probably see most time on the 3rd line moving forward.

Both teams parted ways with long term high profile players who may or may not have had drug problems and had frequent leg injuries

The Yankees: Jason Giambi, his drug of choice was steroids and HGH, though if you read his actual comments, he only apologized for being a distraction for issues in his personal life, never did he explicitly admit to drug use.

The Flyers: Parted ways with Dry Islanders Jeff Carter and Mike Richards who have been accused of everything from excessive drinking to using cocaine.  

 Giambi and Carter: Both are also known for knee/leg problems, Giambi battled knee problems during his last 3-4 years with the Yankees as well as a foot injury, Carter broke both feet and sprained his MCL in his last 2 years with the Flyers.


Both teams always operate over the Salary "cap" of their respective sport.

The Yankees: Pay a luxury tax

The Flyers: exploit LTIR loopholes.



Both Teams have rabid fanbases, New York and Philadelphia are tough cities to play in.


Both Teams have a GM who is essentially a life time member of the organization.

The Yankees: Brian Cashman started as an intern with the Yankees while he was in college. He stuck with the organization before becoming GM.

The Flyers: Paul Holmgren played for the Cup WInning bullies, he then became an Asst. GM and finally GM in 2006. (yes I know he coached in Hartford too)


Both teams have a player who has a narrative history of being clutch despite the fact that standard mathematical evidence proves a major flaw to their game.

The Yankees: Derek Jeter. Captain Clutch. Mr. November. Also good for ~150-170 strikeouts a season.

The Flyers: Danny Briere. Mr. Playoffs. Also good for 25-30 stupid stick fouls a season.


Both players have a controversial, injury prone superstar who's on the downturn of his career and has a contract with no end in sight.

The Yankees: Alex Rodriguez, 10 years, 275M signed in 2007. UGGH.

The Flyers: Chris Pronger, 4.921 Cap Hit until 2017...35+ clause attached.


Both Teams also have an unsung hero who went unappreciated for his hard work.

The Yankees: Brett Gardner, he doesn't put up power numbers, but his stolen bases and great defense helped the Yankees win.

The Flyers: Matt Carle, the best even strength defenseman in the NHL (his weakness is goal scoring and special teams)


Both teams are known for using UFA's and trades to build up rather than from within.

The Yankees: they buy talent. the sign the best available player all the time. even though the Yankees have a 1B, if the Yankees signed Albert Pujols no one would bat an eyelash.

The Flyers: They trade an insane amount of draft picks for other players (Meszaros, Timonen rights, Hartnell rights, Pronger, Bryzgalov's rights, all had picks in their trade). They sign FA's too: Lilja, Bryzgalov, Timonen, Hartnell, Simmonds, Voracek, Talbot, Matt Read, Blair Betts, Jody Shelley, Bobrovsky all signed as UFA or RFA.

But yet both teams have built superstars from within:

The Yankees: Cano, Jeter, Posada, Gardner, Hughes, Chamberlain, Rivera, Pettitte were all built from within the Yankees system and won in 2009

The Flyers: Giroux, JvR, Read (undrafted UFA puts him in both categories), Bartulis, Gus, Bob (undrafted UFA, see Read)




How about you, what do you think? Did I miss anything?

Prospect Profile: Matt Read

If you’ve been reading my recent columns you’ve probably noticed that I keep mentioning Flyers prospect (yes, contrary to popular belief, the Flyers have a couple prospects out there) Matt Read. Read is a forward out of Bemidji State University (BSU) in Minnesota. He just signed a 3 year contract with the Flyers with a 900K cap hit, but most importantly, it’s a 1-way contract which means, he’s got to (possibly…the NHL CBA is conflicting on this) clear waivers right away.

Now, obviously giving him a 3-year 1-way contract means that someone in the Flyers front office thinks highly of Mr. Read, so in order to show what Matt Read could become, I’m going to draw some comparisons to some current Flyers players, Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk, Darroll Powe and Andreas Nodl. I have reasons for picking these 4 players which I will explain quickly here, and in more detail as the profile moves on.

Claude Giroux: In limited AHL duty, Giroux and Read put up eerily similar numbers which later on in this post I will break down. Also, both players are roughly the same size (Read’s 5’10 180, Giroux 5’11 175) so you know what you’re getting in terms of appearance. (I haven’t seen enough video to tell if their skating ability is the same

James van Riemsdyk: Read’s college numbers were similar to JvR’s which I will break down in detail later.

Darroll Powe: Powe, like Read, is a “late bloomer” and Read’s already 25.

Andreas Nodl: both Read and Nodl are products of the USHL then WHCA so since their careers followed similar paths in the past, I’m going to use Nodl as another point of reference as to what Matt Read could be.

Now let’s put Matt Read’s numbers on display (Source is HockeyDB)

Matt Read:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  

2006-07  Des Moines Buccaneers       USHL   58   28   34   62  110

2007-08  Bemidji State University    CHA    36    9   18   27   37

2008-09  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   15   25   40   50

2009-10  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   19   22   41   32

2010-11  Bemidji State University    WCHA   37   22   13   35   34

2010-11  Adirondack Phantoms         AHL    11    7    6   13    6

Yes, I realize, there is no NHL experience up there and very little AHL experience on the board, so we need points of reference to NHL players to hopefully come up with a possible extension as to what this means.  Easiest way to do that, start with the beginning of Mr. Read’s career, the USHL and look at another USHL product on the Flyers, Andreas Nodl.

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  

2004-05  Sioux Falls Stampede        USHL   44    7    9   16   24  

2005-06  Sioux Falls Stampede        USHL   58   29   30   59   16  

In Nodl’s better USHL season compared to Read’s only USHL season the 2 players put up comparable offensive numbers. Seriously, they’re eerily similar.

Both Nodl and Read moved onto the WCHA after that. Nodl would play at St. Cloud State while Read played at BSU. I like this comparison because since both guys played in the USHL and WCHA they faced rather similar competition at both levels.

Here’s Nodl’s numbers:

2006-07  St. Cloud State             WCHA   40   18   28   46   32

2007-08  St. Cloud State             WCHA   40   18   26   44   22

And Read:

2007-08  Bemidji State University    CHA    36    9   18   27   37

2008-09  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   15   25   40   50

2009-10  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   19   22   41   32

2010-11  Bemidji State University    WCHA   37   22   13   35   34

Again, 2 very similar players, both were over a point a game for the most part, with Matt Read having an edge in terms of goals per game ratio (when discounting his 1^st year which seems to be an outlier). Another thing to notice, is with the goals, Nodl stayed the same while Matt Read improved every season, this is something of which it is important to take note.

Also fun fact: Read put up better college numbers than JvR, granted JvR played in the tougher Hockey East division:

JvR’s numbers:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM

2007-08  U. of New Hampshire         H-Eas  31   11   23   34   36

2008-09  U. of New Hampshire         H-Eas  36   17   23   40   47

Also all 3 of these players out produced Darroll Powe in college:

Powe

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM

2003-04  Princeton University        ECAC   29    4    5    9   28

2004-05  Princeton University        ECAC   30    5    2    7   41

2005-06  Princeton University        ECAC   27    6   10   16   48

2006-07  Princeton University        ECAC   34   13   15   28   63

Now of course, we all know that Nodl, prior to this past season, has had trouble scoring earning the nickname No-Goal-Nodl but this is where you’ll notice a huge difference in their progression up the minors, Matt Read (in a limited sample) produced in the AHL:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  
2010-11  Adirondack Phantoms         AHL    11    7    6   13    6

Compared to Nodl:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM
2008-09  Philadelphia Phantoms       AHL    39    6   14   20   20   

2009-10  Adirondack Phantoms         AHL    65   14   20   34   24

Now, in Read’s limited sample we see that Read was over a point-a-game player in the AHL, while Nodl was putting up .52 Points Per Game, in this limited sample, it’s easy to see that Nodl’s game dropped off when he hit the AHL, and again in the NHL. Do you know what current Flyers player put up similar AHL numbers than Read?

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM

2008-09  Philadelphia Phantoms       AHL    33   17   17   34   22

That’s Claude Giroux in the AHL right there. If you adjust Matt Read’s numbers for the same 33 games Claude Giroux played, Read would have had 21G 18A 18PIMs which means, Matt Read is better than rookie Claude Giroux.

I am not saying Read is better than Giroux right now, Giroux is 23 and only getting better, Matt Read is 25 and about to peak so it’s probably fair to expect something similar to Giroux’s rookie season for Matt Read, so let’s pull Claude Giroux’s rookie NHL season:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM

2008-09  Philadelphia Flyers         NHL    42    9   18   27   14

Claude Giroux put up decent numbers as rookie; now let’s adjust those numbers for 82 games played.

The 82 game adjust numbers

Goals: 17.57
Assists: 35.14
Points:  52.71

Those numbers, rounded off, come to 18 goals, 35 assists and 53 points, and that total, should look creepishly similar to a current Flyers player who’s a couple years older than Matt Read; his name is Ville Leino. Since Read’s production in the AHL had a slightly skewed goal-assist ratio compared to Giroux I am going to assume it’s accounted in the fact that the 2010-11 Phantoms had no talent for Read to work with compared to Giroux’s 08-09 Phantoms who were not completely terrible. Because of this, I would like to think that Matt Read has the potential to produce like Claude Giroux or James van Riemsdyk did as a rookie, but without the hype of becoming a top superstar.

Conclusion: If Matt Read progresses as his numbers indicate, at 900K he’s the perfect replacement for Ville Leino. If you can get 50 points from Read at 900K or 55 points from Leino at 2.5M against the Cap, the 5 points are worth the 1.6M that Matt Read would save because that could be used to acquire a goalie who would save goals on the other end.

Conversely, if Matt Read goes bust like Nodl did as rookie, I highly doubt anyone would claim him on waivers on the way down, which would free up the Flyers to make another move, such as importing a European player or making a trade.

The Flyers NEED Matt Read to be closer to Leino than Nodl however, because, the Flyers lack draft picks to restock the system. I’ve run the numbers, now the question is: who is Matt Read? Ville Leino or Andreas Nodl.