Flyerdom Speaks: The Reactions to the Trades

Credit to @ItsAFez66

Might  be a tad bit over the top, also from @ItsAFez66

Hi.
I wanted to know why the Flyers couldn't just release Carcillo, Leighton, Boucher, Shelly, Zherdev and not resign Leino instead of moving Richards.
Thanks.
Art

Ok, I'll tackle this on a player to player basis:

Carcillo: RFA, he's already "off" the books until his situation is resolved.

Zherdev and Boucher: still not enough, Giroux got a 3M raise and losing these to covers Giroux

Shelley and Leighton: Waivers don't go into effect until training camp, there's nothing to do about them until then

So yes, both "had" to go. But this comes back to Holmgren overpaying Timonen, Briere, Hartnell and Pronger all of whom should be making about 1-1.5M less then what they are, Blame Holmgren.

And finally, I leave you with this, a letter from another fan:

I don't understand why direction the front office is going in. The returns for Richards and Carter aren't too bad. Voracek and Schenn could become top line players, Simmonds is a good, young, gritty two-way forward who will endear himself to the fans and has been praised by Giroux. 2012 looks to be a great draft, and according to Anthony SanFilippo, the Flyers are looking to move into the top 3 to select Gabriel Landeskog or Adam Larsson. 
This youth is all well and good and could lead the Flyers to a Cup in five years, but the organization isn't committing to a full rebuild. The defense relies heavily on Chris Pronger (who is on the cap, whether we like it or not, for the next 6 years) and Kimmo Timonen (who has publicly indicated that he will retire after his current contract). Andrej Meszaros, Braydon Coburn, and Matt Carle can all be very good top 4 defense, but neither of them has shown they can anchor a top pairing. Meanwhile, the Flyers really have no top pairing defensive prospects, outside of who they select with the 8th overall (if they keep it) or Adam Larsson (if they move up to 3rd overall and miss out on Landeskog).
Signing Ilya Bryzgalov gives them a Cup-caliber goaltender for the next 5 years or so. After that, Bryzgalov will likely not be worth his $5.667 million cap hit, as only two 35+ year-old starting goalies were in the top 30 in save percentage (Tim Thomas and Dwayne Roloson). The fact that Bryzgalov is signed to a 9-year deal indicates that Sergei Bobrovsky will be traded, as it is hard to imagine Bob wanting to wait for a starting job until he is at least 29 (which is an optimistic assumption of Bryzgalov retiring after the front-loaded 7 years of his contract). The Flyers record of developing goalies leads one to think they will not have a replacement in mind when Bryzgalov does in fact retire.
So my reaction is this: what are we dealing with here? The defense and goaltending is set to compete for the Stanley Cup now, but the offense's youth will likely hold them back. The offense is set to compete for the Stanley Cup in 5 years, but the defense's and goaltender's age and lack of star power will likely hold them back. These moves make no sense.
Perhaps my biggest concern though is how this will affect the future of Claude Giroux and James van Riemsdyk. Mike Richards said, among other things, today, "I probably wouldn't have signed the deal, actually, if I knew I'd be traded." Why would either of these two sign a long term deal with the Flyers now at less than market value? Maybe if Paul Holmgren is fired, this notion would change, but I tend to believe that a lot of this is due to Ed Snider. Part 4 of Holmgren's interview on the Flyers' website makes me believe that his hand was forced, along with the extreme U-turn the team appears to have taken in philosophy. Plain and simple, I do not believe that Paul Holmgren is to blame for trading Mike Richards.
Basically what I'm trying to say is "What is going on?"

Or a more optimistic approach:

Well at first I thought it was going to be like 06-07 all over again, but after they signed Bryzgalov  I looked at who they got and  I realized they got younger and the kids they got can play. I feel that we have to wait and see to figure out if Homer made the right moves

Keep the discussion going.

The Alternative NHL Awards

So if you watched the NHL Awards last night, you may have been let down by some of the results, or just thought that the all around feel of the show was "meh", I mean- Jay Mohr...really? really? And...that musical performance...it was almost as bad as meeting Matt Cooke or Raffi Torres behind the net. Luckily, for anyone let down by the NHL awards we here at DGS have a set of Alternative Awards that should be more entertaining than Jay Mohr and Gary Bettman. Mainly because, we guarantee that Jay Mohr and Gary Bettman aren't here to present anything.



Award: The Vesa Toskala Memorial Award of "Goaltending"
Nominees: 1-Sergei Bobrovsky playoff edition 2-Brian Boucher in clutch games 3- Michael Leighton's existence
And the Winner Is:...A god-damn tie between all 3 Flyers goalies.

Award: The Trevor Gillies Award of Useful-lessness

Nominees: 1-Trevor Gillies wearing a road uniform 2-Trevor Gillies in a home uniform 3-Trevor Gillies on suspension

And the Winner Is:...Raffi Torres, because Trevor Gillies proved he has some value in naming the award.

Award: The Houdini Disappearing Award in the Playoffs

Nominees: 1- Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin 2- Sidney Crosby 3- Jeff Carter

And the Winner Is:...Sidney Crosby, because no matter how much we heard about him, he never seemed to be on the ice. (Though, with the news Carter is going to Columbus, pretty sure he has 11 years of never making the playoffs ahead of him)

Award: The Glen Sather Memorial GM Award

Nominees: 1-Paul Holmgren trading Gagne for Walker 2-Paul Holmgren not doing math 3-

And the Winner Is:...

Award: The

Nominees: 1- 2- 3-

And the Winner Is:...

This is how the post ends due to the trades, I  cannot finish it. It just is

Tales from a [Location TBD] Nothing

My Darling Glove -

Long time no talk, eh? Yeah, it's been a rough few months - to put it lightly. Finally get called up, make it on to the bench, make it into a game in relief but blow it in overtime and finally get a start and just completely fail. You thought I had no lateral movement before, well, ha - Game 5 was much horrendous. A fan in the stands could have done better. To make matters worse, I busted my hip and was unavailable to the media and they started saying I went AWOL and had a breakdown and all this jazz. I had family members calling me to ask if I'm okay and if I needed anything - like really? Give me a break.

So the hip - busted. Yup - that's right, had to have surgery - again. I'm starting to think I'm more fragile than Rick DiPietro. If only I could have figured out how to get a 15-year contract, then I'd be set. I can already tell next year is not going to be a pleasant one.

After the playoff debacle with the musical goalies - cause let's face it, we all stunk at one time or another during the playoffs - management decided it might be time to stop shopping off the goalie clearance rack. They went out and traded for the rights to Ilya Bryzgalov. Yeah, this guy wants serious money and serious years. He'd be kind of amusing if his arrival didn't mean a one way ticket to the waiver wire for yours truly - cause let's face it, he's Russian, Bob's Russian, Boosh is a UFA and I'm screwed. At least it appears that there will be room down on the Phantoms, with rumblings of Backlund going to Europe and Homer just giving up to the rights to everyone else on the farm aside from Stewie - just got to make the most of a bad situation. At least I can go down there and break the AHL shutout record - a whole season down there, piece of cake. At least I'll be wanted.

Maybe it's time to consider a new profession.

Dejected Faces and Heavy Sighs,

Leights

NHL Father's Day Fun

Today, err yesterday...was Father's Day and needless to say, we can assume that many NHL stars did things that made their dad's happy...my super spies picked up some of the list:

Jeff Carter: Played some hockey with his dad in London, Ontario. When Papa Carter was in net, Carter couldn't score because every shot still went high and wide.

Zdeno Chara: Attempted to have a face to face chest conversation with his dad, but then a stanchion got in the way.

Alex Burrows: Alex attempted to play a round of golf with his dad, it ended abruptly on the first hole when Old Man Burrows took his first shot and all the way on the green, Alex fell over and claimed to have a broken nose.

Greg Campbell: Thanked his dad on behalf of the entire Bruins team and fanbase for winning a Stanley Cup for the Boston Bruins.

Mark Recchi: dedicated his future day with the Stanley Cup to his dad, who won Cups with Pittsburgh in the early 90s...wait, what's that? that was Mark...oohhhh wow...oops.

Ilya Bryzgalov: Got to tell his dad about the merits of the American Capitalist System in that he's about to get a huge payday and the idiocy of the American Businessman who toss big contracts out like idiots since he's getting a huge payday.

Dan Carcillo: Asked his dad if he's proud of things he's Tweeted about.

Summer Employment Opportunities

Tonight, the NHL season ends, there will be no more hockey until September when the preseason starts. Now, as we learned from Dan Ellis, ESCROW hurts NHL players. To make up for it, several NHL players have taken offseason jobs to help them make back their lost money.

By the transitive property, if I look like
Briere and Briere looks like Paul
then I must look like Paul.

Danny Briere: The Flyers Magical Spearing Midget has acquired a job making public appearances as the doppelganger for the head writer and creator of a little known NHL Comedy Site known as Down Goes Spezza. After that, Briere's pulling double duty and playing in a Beatles cover band.

I think Timmy needs to drop weight
for this job

Tim Thomas: Will be replacing Drew Carey on "The Price is Right" for a few episodes over the summer, no one will ever notice.


Mark Recchi: Will finally open an office to practice medicine, he's a doctor you know...and Dan Ellis will tell us, it is just as hard to be a hockey player as it is a doctor. This is why Recchi's an offseason doctor only.

Joel Lundqvist: Henrik's twin will actually represent his brother at all team events in the summer so Henrik can work on being a goaltender.

Paul Holmgren: So, it's not really a job, but Homer is gonna be attending summer school to learn how to do basic math. Addition of numbers and the concept of "greater than and less than" are in school.

Peter Laviolette: Will be delivering 30 second motivational speeches to anyone who needs them.

Brian Boucher: Will be professionally unemployed come July 1 and probably forever.

Maxim LaPierre, Alex Burrows, Daniel Carcillo: Will all move to the world of swimming as they are professional divers.

Weddings and Fun

Yesterday DGS attended a cousin's wedding, needless to say, Family Goes Spezza started asking me about when I was getting married and it got me thinking, what's it like to compare hockey and a wedding.


Wedding: A bunch of people attend an event where 2 people come together, say, "I do" and hopefully live happily ever after.
Hockey: A bunch of people attend an event where 2 people come together, say, "I do" and then proceed to punch each other repeatedly in the face before sitting apart for 5 minutes.

Wedding: Some marriages are just made in heaven and you know there's perfect chemistry between the couple.
Hockey: Some lines are just made via amazing trades and the draft and you know there's perfect twin magic between the Sedins.

Wedding: When something goes wrong, there's a detailed court system in place to sort it out.
Hockey: When something goes wrong, there's a Wheel of Justice and a Flowchart.

Wedding: Feigning illness or injury in order to either gain sympathy or avoid doing something for your spouse is a common technique that is only used after years of marriage.
Hockey: Feigning illness or injury to gain sympathy from referees is a constant event for players on the Vancouver Canucks.

Wedding: Meddling Mothers-In-Law tend to break apart marriages through possible conspiracies.
Hockey: Before June 2011, The NHL conspired against the 29 teams that did NOT employ one Greg Campbell.

Wedding: Brides with a checkered history still wear white to hide their past indiscretions.
Hockey: Sean Avery isn't afraid to let people know who has picked up sloppy seconds.

Wedding: Evil, impossible to satisfy brides who are always taking heads off are known as Bride-zilla
Hockey: Matt Cooke.

Wedding: Some people choose to "elope" or get married quietly without much fanfare with the only proof of marriage being a marriage certificate
Hockey: The Phoenix Coyotes played the Columbus Blue Jackets 4 times this season, allegedly.

Wedding: A good best man will deliver a toast that doesn't involve the phrases, "down in Tijuana" "while we were on spring break" or other unsavory stories, but if it happens, the groom just has to suck it up and deal with it and hope his marriage doesn't end before it begins.
Hockey: Taunting is now punishable because it hurts feelings. This is because last year, Chris Pronger was day-to-day with hurt feelings.

NHL 12 Other Features

So, EA Sports unleashed new features for the NHL12 game including goalie fights, the winter classic and better better physics as well. Well, the DGS SuperSpies got their hands on several other features that will be in the game come September, and I'm doing the world a favor and sharing them.

1. Any trade proposal made to the Philadelphia Flyers when being the GM of another team will automatically be rejected, only to be reoffered as the same trade but with the Flyers giving you a free draft pick.
2. There will be a new subset of Be a GM Mode that has no waivers, no salary cap and is therefore math free, this will be called "Holmgren Mode"
3. Regardless of what the negotiated amount of a contract is, if you're the GM of the Rangers, all contracts given to UFA's will show up as "6 years, 39 Million".
4. There will be a special "Hockey in Jobing.com" mode that can be accessed regardless of what arena you're playing this game in. To activate it, find your television's remote control and press the "mute" button.
5. Rick DiPietro will finally shatter into a million places when he makes save.
6. You can now in fact, conspire against the Canucks, all you have to do is play the be a GM mode, and trade every player on the Canucks to Edmonton or the Islanders and take players like Rick DiPietro and Sieve Mason in return.
7. In Detroit, Red Wings games will automatically have a spineless slimeball hit the ice every game, and you the player, can take control of it. In unrelated news, I wonder what Todd Bertuzzi's ratings will be.
8. If you're the Boston Bruins and you're losing a game or if you're just bored, Zdeno Chara can now check people off the stanchion.
9. All injury updates will appear on the screen in "Dr. Recchi Form" should you choose to activate that feature.
10. There will now be a "real trade rumors" portion of the Be a GM Mode trade rumors feature, this feature will link every player in the game in a possible trade to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Prospect Profile: Matt Read

If you’ve been reading my recent columns you’ve probably noticed that I keep mentioning Flyers prospect (yes, contrary to popular belief, the Flyers have a couple prospects out there) Matt Read. Read is a forward out of Bemidji State University (BSU) in Minnesota. He just signed a 3 year contract with the Flyers with a 900K cap hit, but most importantly, it’s a 1-way contract which means, he’s got to (possibly…the NHL CBA is conflicting on this) clear waivers right away.

Now, obviously giving him a 3-year 1-way contract means that someone in the Flyers front office thinks highly of Mr. Read, so in order to show what Matt Read could become, I’m going to draw some comparisons to some current Flyers players, Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk, Darroll Powe and Andreas Nodl. I have reasons for picking these 4 players which I will explain quickly here, and in more detail as the profile moves on.

Claude Giroux: In limited AHL duty, Giroux and Read put up eerily similar numbers which later on in this post I will break down. Also, both players are roughly the same size (Read’s 5’10 180, Giroux 5’11 175) so you know what you’re getting in terms of appearance. (I haven’t seen enough video to tell if their skating ability is the same

James van Riemsdyk: Read’s college numbers were similar to JvR’s which I will break down in detail later.

Darroll Powe: Powe, like Read, is a “late bloomer” and Read’s already 25.

Andreas Nodl: both Read and Nodl are products of the USHL then WHCA so since their careers followed similar paths in the past, I’m going to use Nodl as another point of reference as to what Matt Read could be.

Now let’s put Matt Read’s numbers on display (Source is HockeyDB)

Matt Read:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  

2006-07  Des Moines Buccaneers       USHL   58   28   34   62  110

2007-08  Bemidji State University    CHA    36    9   18   27   37

2008-09  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   15   25   40   50

2009-10  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   19   22   41   32

2010-11  Bemidji State University    WCHA   37   22   13   35   34

2010-11  Adirondack Phantoms         AHL    11    7    6   13    6

Yes, I realize, there is no NHL experience up there and very little AHL experience on the board, so we need points of reference to NHL players to hopefully come up with a possible extension as to what this means.  Easiest way to do that, start with the beginning of Mr. Read’s career, the USHL and look at another USHL product on the Flyers, Andreas Nodl.

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  

2004-05  Sioux Falls Stampede        USHL   44    7    9   16   24  

2005-06  Sioux Falls Stampede        USHL   58   29   30   59   16  

In Nodl’s better USHL season compared to Read’s only USHL season the 2 players put up comparable offensive numbers. Seriously, they’re eerily similar.

Both Nodl and Read moved onto the WCHA after that. Nodl would play at St. Cloud State while Read played at BSU. I like this comparison because since both guys played in the USHL and WCHA they faced rather similar competition at both levels.

Here’s Nodl’s numbers:

2006-07  St. Cloud State             WCHA   40   18   28   46   32

2007-08  St. Cloud State             WCHA   40   18   26   44   22

And Read:

2007-08  Bemidji State University    CHA    36    9   18   27   37

2008-09  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   15   25   40   50

2009-10  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   19   22   41   32

2010-11  Bemidji State University    WCHA   37   22   13   35   34

Again, 2 very similar players, both were over a point a game for the most part, with Matt Read having an edge in terms of goals per game ratio (when discounting his 1^st year which seems to be an outlier). Another thing to notice, is with the goals, Nodl stayed the same while Matt Read improved every season, this is something of which it is important to take note.

Also fun fact: Read put up better college numbers than JvR, granted JvR played in the tougher Hockey East division:

JvR’s numbers:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM

2007-08  U. of New Hampshire         H-Eas  31   11   23   34   36

2008-09  U. of New Hampshire         H-Eas  36   17   23   40   47

Also all 3 of these players out produced Darroll Powe in college:

Powe

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM

2003-04  Princeton University        ECAC   29    4    5    9   28

2004-05  Princeton University        ECAC   30    5    2    7   41

2005-06  Princeton University        ECAC   27    6   10   16   48

2006-07  Princeton University        ECAC   34   13   15   28   63

Now of course, we all know that Nodl, prior to this past season, has had trouble scoring earning the nickname No-Goal-Nodl but this is where you’ll notice a huge difference in their progression up the minors, Matt Read (in a limited sample) produced in the AHL:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  
2010-11  Adirondack Phantoms         AHL    11    7    6   13    6

Compared to Nodl:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM
2008-09  Philadelphia Phantoms       AHL    39    6   14   20   20   

2009-10  Adirondack Phantoms         AHL    65   14   20   34   24

Now, in Read’s limited sample we see that Read was over a point-a-game player in the AHL, while Nodl was putting up .52 Points Per Game, in this limited sample, it’s easy to see that Nodl’s game dropped off when he hit the AHL, and again in the NHL. Do you know what current Flyers player put up similar AHL numbers than Read?

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM

2008-09  Philadelphia Phantoms       AHL    33   17   17   34   22

That’s Claude Giroux in the AHL right there. If you adjust Matt Read’s numbers for the same 33 games Claude Giroux played, Read would have had 21G 18A 18PIMs which means, Matt Read is better than rookie Claude Giroux.

I am not saying Read is better than Giroux right now, Giroux is 23 and only getting better, Matt Read is 25 and about to peak so it’s probably fair to expect something similar to Giroux’s rookie season for Matt Read, so let’s pull Claude Giroux’s rookie NHL season:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM

2008-09  Philadelphia Flyers         NHL    42    9   18   27   14

Claude Giroux put up decent numbers as rookie; now let’s adjust those numbers for 82 games played.

The 82 game adjust numbers

Goals: 17.57
Assists: 35.14
Points:  52.71

Those numbers, rounded off, come to 18 goals, 35 assists and 53 points, and that total, should look creepishly similar to a current Flyers player who’s a couple years older than Matt Read; his name is Ville Leino. Since Read’s production in the AHL had a slightly skewed goal-assist ratio compared to Giroux I am going to assume it’s accounted in the fact that the 2010-11 Phantoms had no talent for Read to work with compared to Giroux’s 08-09 Phantoms who were not completely terrible. Because of this, I would like to think that Matt Read has the potential to produce like Claude Giroux or James van Riemsdyk did as a rookie, but without the hype of becoming a top superstar.

Conclusion: If Matt Read progresses as his numbers indicate, at 900K he’s the perfect replacement for Ville Leino. If you can get 50 points from Read at 900K or 55 points from Leino at 2.5M against the Cap, the 5 points are worth the 1.6M that Matt Read would save because that could be used to acquire a goalie who would save goals on the other end.

Conversely, if Matt Read goes bust like Nodl did as rookie, I highly doubt anyone would claim him on waivers on the way down, which would free up the Flyers to make another move, such as importing a European player or making a trade.

The Flyers NEED Matt Read to be closer to Leino than Nodl however, because, the Flyers lack draft picks to restock the system. I’ve run the numbers, now the question is: who is Matt Read? Ville Leino or Andreas Nodl.

Don't Trade Carter, Trade Hartnell Instead

(Author’s Note: I use the term SO to mean shootout in this article)

(Editor's Note: No humor today, I just realized it's been almost a week since I updated this site and I wanted to be sure you guys didn't think I forgot this place existed so I'm double posting a piece I wrote for HFL on why I think Carter should stay and Hartnell should go.)

The guys over at Broad Street Hockey have written several posts as to why Jeff Carter is not worth trading for a goalie. I myself have gone on record as saying the only player I could accept trading Jeff Carter for is Shea Weber. Anyway, I figure it best that to justify these feelings I should actually show the math behind it. In order to show why Carter is not worth a goalie, I will compare Jeff Carter + Sergei Bobrovsky to Ilya Bryzgalov.

Now, this comparison is based on an attempt to prove that losing Jeff Carter’s production will NOT be worth the bonus of a goalie. Think of it this way, the goals Carter scores will outpace the goals prevented by acquiring a top A+ talent goalie.

Jeff Carter had 36G 30A this season for a total of 66 points: that means that Jeff Carter had a hand in 66 goals in 80 games, this means that Jeff Carter created 0.825 Goals per game. This means that in order to replace Jeff Carter’s production, you need to account for AT LEAST 0.825 goals per game in whatever comes back AND keep the team under the salary cap while doing so. So, let’s try to do that shall we. Sergei Bobrovsky had a .915 SV% for a GAA of 2.59 after allowing 130 goals on 1527 shots in just over 3000 minutes of game time in 54 games played. Brian Boucher’s stats were almost identical so using Bob is a fair comparison.

So, when you multiply out Jeff Carter’s offensive production for 54 games instead of 80, you get 44.55 points, which in order to make the Flyers come out ahead means that I will round up to 45 points. So the new goalie would need to allow 85 goals in 54 games…that’s a pace that would DESTROY the current NHL record. The save percentage (based on the shots Bob faced) would be 99.944%. I’ll stop for a second: 99.944 SV%. That is unheard of. That is IMPOSSIBLE. The NHL record for SV% was set this past season by Tim Thomas, it was 93.8%. Now obviously, I’m not completely insane, I know that another forward would take the spot of Jeff Carter on the Flyers top-6.

So rather than stick to that 99.944% number I’m going to set a bar for this new goalie and look at what the replacement for Jeff Carter would have to put up in order to replace the 66 goals that Carter created. Let’s assume that the Flyers land Ilya Bryzgalov. For 3 of the last 4 seasons, Ilya has put up a 92 or 92.1 SV% and has a career SV% of 91.6%. I am going to be generous and say Bryzgalov posts a 92.5 SV% in 55 games as the Flyers goalie. I’m using 55 games because that’s close to what Bobrovsky played as the ‘starter’ this season for the Flyers. Now, let’s assume that because of the age of the Flyers star defenders, Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen, that the Flyers defense allows more shots through on this goalie, whoever he is, so in the 55 games, the Flyers allow 1600 shots on goal. This is an average of just over 29 shots per game up from 28.27 shots per game allowed against Bob last year.

To have a 92.5 SV% Bryzgalov would have to stop 1480 of 1600 shots, which means he allows 120 goals in 55 games for a GAA of 2.18 (this assumes no OT/SO or EN goals and that Bryz plays 60 minutes every game.)

Comparatively speaking, Bob’s 91.5 SV% during the same time: 1464 saves on 1600 shots or 136 goals allowed in 55 games for a GAA of 2.47. (Same rules regarding OT/SO/EN situations.) This means that Bryzgalov is stopping 16 goals that Carter would have scored. Keep the number 16 in mind for later. Jeff Carter created 66 goals in 80 games, since we’re basing our goalies on 55 games, Carter would create 46 goals in 55 games. (It’s actually 45.375, but I’m rounding up which guarantees that if the Flyers ‘break even’ in production terms they’re actually a tiny bit ahead.)

Now, since Bryzgalov is a 16 goal improvement over Bobrovsky in 55 games, we can subtract that 16 from Jeff Carter’s 46 in the 55 games to leave us with 30 goals that need to be accounted for in 55 games or .545 goals per game. This leads to the next question, where do you get a player who creates this type of offense. Well the first thing we’ll do is find out what ‘this kind of offense’ is over an 82 game season, the answer 42.73 points which we will round up to 43. Sounds easy right, finding a 43 point player; well it’s not, because guess what? Carter’s 5.27 cap hit is now on Bryzgalov which means you need to find 43 (or more) points in a player who (according to my calculations) would make less 2.625 against the cap.

Sounds easy right, but wait, ONE MORE THING, you have to replace Ville Leino’s 54 points (per season) as well with another 800K (Leino’s old salary) on the cap, which means, you need to get 2 players, who produce 97 points combined in 82 games with less than 3.1M to do it. This cap number assumes a 62M cap and LTIR of Ian Laperriere, waiving of Shelley, Leighton and Walker and resigning Nodl and Powe to reasonable hits based on their RFA qualifying numbers.

Now, there’s some internal solutions, for one: James van Riemsdyk will surely improve on his 21G 19A effort from 2010-11; 55 points for JvR seems reasonable so that increase of 15 points on his side comes out of the 97 points and knocks it down to 82. So we’re down 2 players costing less than 3.1M AND producing 82 points combined. Assuming Matt Read makes the NHL roster because of his 1-way contract, his NCAA numbers and a limited AHL sample suggest that he could produce like Andreas Nodl did this year, I’m going to be generous and give Matt Read 27 points over a full season. Read has a 900K cap hit. This leaves 2.2M in cap space and 55 points needed just to break even in terms of a full season of production. Can this be done? Yes if Ville Leino signs for 2.2 (he wants 3.5 or more) and has the exact same season, the Flyers break even on dealing Carter for Bryzgalov.

But I propose a counter solution. Trade Scott Hartnell (who has already once agreed his NTC, in 2009 to EDM for Sheldon Souray, but Souray would not waive his NTC) which frees up 4.2 in cap space. Have Matt Read’s 27 points fill in for Hartnell’s projected 50 points then use the remaining (2.625 (cap space)+3.3 Hartnell/Read difference) 5.925 to sign Vokoun at 4 and put 1.925 to signing another 25 point player (they exist at that price and my vote goes to Eric Belanger due to the fact that he’s also solid defensively as well) Here’s why: Vokoun’s save% will be about 92.2% behind the Flyers D and based off his career numbers that could be an understatement, he could very easily put up the 92.5 SV% I put on Bryzgalov. If Vokoun comes in he’s going to stop 11-15 more goals than Bob (92.2-92.4375 SV%) for a GAA of 2.27-2.20. (Again, like earlier, these calculations are based off 1600 shots faced in 55 games)

This means that the Flyers would come out ahead in terms of goals (same offensive production from Read + Belanger in Leino and Hartnell’s slots when JvR’s point increase and the fact that Carter’s got a 16 goal cushion because he’s staying.) And that’s how you win, by scoring more than the other team. This team, based on my calculations with these moves will do just that.

It Could Be Worse Folks...It Could Be a Lot Worse

The emails and tweets and Facebook messages I've been getting from Flyers fans you'd think Mr. Camping was right and the world had ended. Things could be worse folks, in fact, it could be like this....


The Flyers could have a history that involves 0 playoff wins and impending relocation to Winnipeg; apologies to the Atlanta Thrashers.

The Flyers could be named after a Disney movie; apologies to the Anaheim Ducks

The Flyers could be playing home games in Columbus, OH; apologies to the Blue Jackets and their one fan.

The Flyers could have imploded completely about half way through the season and missed the playoffs entirely, apologies to the Colorado Avalanche.

The Flyers could have acquired a goalie and at the cost of the defensive depth needed to fully utilize that goalie's skills. This is why the Hurricanes missed the playoffs

The Flyers could be run by Sutters, apologies to the Calgary Flames.

The Flyers could be known as the team that tries to use stanchions to decapitate players AND has a doctor on the ice at all times named Recchi; forget it, I'm not apologizing the Boston...

The Flyers could be stuck in Buffalo, apologies to the Buffalo Sabres that aren't named Miller, Gaustad, Myers or Kaleta and a wish that Steve Whyno gets transferred to Buffalo.

The Flyers could have the most annoying goal song ever and a backup goalie with a gambling problem, apologies to the Blackhawks. (If anyone can do better, I'll edit this one)

The Flyers could have massive ownership problems and be stuck in Texas, apologies to the Dallas Stars.

The Flyers could be forced to put a slimy, spineless, dirtball on the ice every game; thank GOD Detroit won't let Todd Bertuzzi go.

The Flyers could be the Edmonton Oilers.

The Flyers could be losing the one bright spot of their franchise and be left with nothing, apologies to the Florida Panthers, welcome to Tomas Vokoun, may I measure you for pads and a #29 Flyers sweater.

The Flyers could move west, and break their legs, and still be coached by Terry Murray and John Stevens, apologies to the LA Kings, please don't let Hextall beat me up.

The Flyers could have given a 7+ cap hit out to a player crippling their cap situation, apologies to Mikko Koivu and the Wild.

The Flyers could have riots after every single playoff game, pardon moi, Montreal.

The Flyers could have goaltending and D, but no scoring punch at all, ever, oh yeah, and they wouldn't know the meaning of the phrase "Conference Finals" apologies to Nashville.

The Flyers could be ducking jelly and have been coached by John MacLean for half a season, LOL DEVILS LOL!

Glen Sather could be taking over for Paul Holmgren tomorrow, Oh Rangers, please don't ever change.

Rick DiPietro could be a Flyer, with that 15yr contract. LOLanders.

The Ottawa Senators are a joke in and of themselves thanks to Jason Spezza's neutral zone drop passes to the other team and Chris Phillips being a total traffic pylon and Cory Clouston's odd coaching moves and Brian Murray's signings of players like Sergei Gonchar and Alex Kovalev and the fact that well, apologies to the 5 Senators fans on the planet who have to deal with that crap.

The Flyers could be the Phoenix Coyotes, where no one ever cares about them and everyone wants them in Hamilton, Ontario; apologies to Jim Balsillie for NOT being able to make this happen.

The Flyers could employ Matt Cooke and he might you know, take off a teammates head during practice, PenGOONs

The Flyers could choke every single postseason ever despite always finishing first in the conference, apologies to the San Jose Sharks.

The Flyers could lose a ton of money on silly ideas like giving season ticket holders their money back if the team misses the playoffs, apologies to the St. Louis Blues.

The Flyers could employ a midget and a bunch of hypocrites regarding spin-o-ramas, apologies to Simon Gagne, Dwayne Roloson and Sean Bergenheim only.

The Flyers could be owned by Harold Ballard and have John Ferguson Jr. as GM at the same time, apologies to the Toronto Maple Leafs, the only team with a Cup drought longer than the Flyers. 1967 happened BEFORE 1975.

The Flyers could be more concerned with getting spots on the 2012 Olympic diving teams rather than winning games all while being paranoid the world is out to get them, sound familiar Vancouver Canucks?

The Flyers could have faux-hawks and ride mopeds and do other douchey things like that; apologies to Washington Capitals fans who actually understand hockey, I know 3 of you.






See, it's not so bad...is it?

Things Daniel Carcillo Said to Get Suspended

So, earlier today it was announced that Dan Carcillo will be suspended 2 games to start the 2011-2012 campaign.

Now it was said that Carcillo engaged in aggressive behavior with officials and a lot of people wonder, what really went down. Needless to say, the DGS-SuperSpies obtained for me the official transcript of what was said between Mr. Carcillo and NHL Linesman Mr. Ms. Brian Murphy (Because Chris Pronger said that refs are the "she")


Dan Carcillo: Hey! Murphy.

Brian Murphy: Yes, Daniel.

Carcillo: Do you like my facial hair?

Murphy: No, sir, I do not.

Carcillo: Why not?

Murphy: It's ugly

Carcillo: I bet if I was Greg Campbell you would like it.

Murphy: That is because Greg Campbell is amazing and I like my job.

Carcillo: But Greg Campbell is a dirty, filthy, cheating, scumbag, bottom feeding, trash bag ho.

Murphy: I think that comment was out of line, Daniel. I will be telling Colie about this.

Carcillo: You think this comment was out of line, is that what you think?

Murphy: Well------

Carcillo: IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOU THINK!!!!!!!!!!

Murphy: Uhh, Danny....*points to figure in the dressing room* that's Colie...he heard you say everything.

Carcillo: *throws head back, falls on floor* I got sticked in the face by that EVIL EVIL EVIL Steve Ott who tried to murder the heroic Greg Campbell.

Colie: Hmm; that's a fair mitigating circumstance, you only get 2 games instead of a lifetime ban.

Other Things NHL Players Have Forgotten

So, earlier this weekend Flyers Captain Michael Richards tweeted about forgetting to pay his cable bill

Oh Richie, were you also expecting a phone call
informing you that the 2nd round of the playoffs
had started as well?

Well, honestly Mr. Richards isn't the only person in the NHL to forget something, as a matter of fact, many NHL players and personalities have been known to forget things, and here at DGS, we have the list.



Paul Holmgren: Has forgotten how to do basic math and has given the Flyers cap problems for at least the next 5 years.

Dan Ellis: Has claimed that he "forgot" to pay his ESCROW.

Nick Lidstrom: Is so old that he has in fact, forgotten to retire.

Paul Holmgren: Has forgotten the rules of the CBA pertaining to 35+ contracts and gave Pronger 7 years and a cap hit of 4.921.

The Toronto Maple Leafs: Have forgotten what the playoffs are.

Joe Thornton: Has apparently forgotten that he is playing in the playoffs right now.

Paul Holmgren: Has forgotten, like his predecessor, what "goaltending" is.

Kyle Wellwood: Forgets to stick to his diet.

Evgeni Nabokov: Forgot that the Islanders do NOT yet have a new arena and ended up lost on Long Island because he absolutely thought that there was no way an NHL team would ever play in the Nassau Coliseum.

Michael Leighton: Has forgotten how to close his 5-hole.

Paul Holmgren: Forgot that Michael Leighton doesn't know how to close his 5 hole and therefore gave him a 1.55 cap hit.

Chris Pronger: Would like to forget this year from hell.

Scott Hartnell and Kris Versteeg: Have both forgotten how to skate which led to the fun of Hartnell Down and Versteeg Down counts.

Jonathan Toews: Has forgotten how to blink, show emotion, and display normal.

The Boston Bruins: Have forgotten that it's perfectly OK to score when you're up a man.

Paul Holmgren: Has forgotten what a draft pick is due to the fact that the Flyers haven't had one in forever.

Roberto Luongo, and many of the Vancouver Canucks: Have forgotten the difference between a diving pool and an ice rink.

Matt Cooke: Will most likely soon forget the lesson he learned from his 17 game suspension for a headshot and will end up elbowing Gregory Campbell in the head early next season.

Gary Bettman: Has obviously forgotten that he doesn't work for the NBA anymore.

Patrick Kane: Has forgotten what it's like to be sober

The Flyers Entire Defensive Corps: Randomly forgets how to play defense leaving Brian Boucher alone against Zdeno Chara slap shots.

Daniel Carcillo: Forgot that some things, like questions involving sexual turn ons, are probably better left to realm of a "DM" on Twitter.

Ilya Bryzgalov: Forgot that the playoffs actually count.

Other NHL Sex Related Scandals

So earlier today Daniel Carcillo tweeted the following:

@OG_CarBomb13: "@BizNasty2point0 weigh in on this. When a girl leans back while fingers r in her and says "my dad would b so proud of me"..turn on or no??"

Needless to say he followed up with an apology and then a tweet about going

@OG_CarBomb13: "Goin' commando in N.Y. Feeling so free!"

Now, Daniel Carcillo isn't the first NHL player to have a problem with sexist comments as a matter of fact the NHL is littered with tons of sex issues, here's some of the lowlights.

• December 2008: Sean Avery makes a comment about sloppy seconds. Later in 2010, after a long steady diet of lithium and anti-psychotics, he vows to stand by any gay NHL player who wants to come out of the closet
  
  
• September 2005: Soon after the NHL lockout ends, fans all across the NHL begin questioning the sexuality of one Sidney Crosby.
  
  
• October 2010: James Wisniewski tells Sean Avery to "blow me" marking Wis as being the first NHL player to tell Avery something everyone has wanted to do for years.
  
  
• May 2011: A woman takes a picture of a sleeping Patrick Kane and his boarding pass, come to think of it, why hasn't this happened more often? Also, in a more important question, how did Pat Kane think he was getting to the airport since I'm pretty sure no cabbie would drive him anymore?
  
  
• January 2010: Patrick Kane is photographed shirtless in the back of a limo. The obvious question here is 'does Pat Kane treat limo drivers like he does cabbies?' The second question, "When was Patrick Kane last sober?"
  
  
• June 2008: During the month of June 2008, Brian Rolston discovered a sex-tape of Devils GM Lou Lamoriello, because quite honestly, this is the only explanation for a contract that terrible.
  
  
• July 1996: Todd Bertuzzi gets married, marking the first time a human being has ever married an slimy invertebrate.
  
  
• December 2009: Jeff Carter texts teammate Scott Hartnell that he's going out shopping with wife Lisa for some new outfits so he can look good while picking up women, talk about a text that totally got interpreted wrong.
  
  
• Sometime in say 2004 to present: DGS was accused of kissing girls; and he liked it...something involving the taste of her cherry chapstick
  
  
• Sometime in 2003: Martin Brodeur engages in an affair with his wife's brother's wife. All in all, this makes Chris Pronger look far less slimy.
  
• Since 2001: Pregnancies in Detroit have been increasing exponentially due to the fact that Pavel Datsyuk can impregnate women with dekes.
  
• May 2009: BizNasty graduated with his degree in "Panty Soup." Enough said.
  
• Since 2002: Pierre McGuire has creeped out NHL-ers everywhere by calling games. 

(Editor's Note: RIP Derek Boogaard, you will be missed. 28 is too young for anyone to go.)

DGS Podcast Episode 15: Justin from The Goalie Guild

The Flyers have a goaltending problem, so I tried to solve it. I did that by getting the best goalie expert I know to come on the podcast and talk about the Flyers goaltending: Justin from The Goalie Guild





Find Justin on the web at the below links:

The Goalie Guild on Twitter

The Goalie Guild Website


Also: Download the show by clicking here

The Media vs the Players fight

Today there was a pissing match between Flyers fans, media and players. After the dust cleared, there was a monologue, the DGS superspies caught the monologue on tape.





Yes, I was part of it too, and I was wrong to have joined in.

Flyers Forwards: What's Going to Happen Next

As I did a few days ago with the goalies, here we go with the forwards. I only did the 14 guys who played over 50 games this season. Anyone who's waiver exempt and spent more time with the Phantoms was not included.

Guaranteed to be back next year:

Mike Richards: he's the captain, a favorite of GM Paul Holmgren and coach Peter Laviolette. No one INSIDE the organization has ever questioned his leadership and the fact that he has another 10 years onn his contract helps too.

Jeff Carter: he's an alternate captain and the same as Richards. Also, it would be incredibly disrespectful to trade someone so soon after inking an 11 year extension with them.

Danny Briere: he's making 6.5M against the cap for 3 more years and has an NMC. Even if the Flyers wanted to, there's no way to move him.

James van Riemsdyk: Making 1.654 against the cap, the Flyers shopped him in November 2010, the asking price then was 2 firsts and 2 seconds and a prospect. At this point, the Flyers might want 4 firsts for him since his 2012 RFA offer sheet would probably be in that range.

Claude Giroux: He was a huge star for the Flyers all year. Also averaged an assist per game in the playoffs. He's back.

75% Chance of returning:

Scott Hartnell: making 4.25 against the cap. He's a fan favorite and a "Philadelphia Type" player. That being said, the Flyers apparently tried to trade him to Edmonton a couple years back for Sheldon Souray but Souray refused to waive his NTC. He might get moved, but I doubt it.

Blair Betts: Blair's major strength, winning PK faceoffs disappeared at the end of this season, right after he broke a finger, because of his 700K cap hit, he is moveable to a team looking for a PK guy, (eyeing you Vancouver, more on this later)

Jody Shelley: He's making 1.1 against the cap, which for an enforcer, is rather steep. He also had a broken orbital bone causing him to miss a lot of time towards the end of the season, and it rendered him unavailable for the first round of the playoffs as well. 

Darroll Powe: He's an RFA looking for a raise from his 725K salary to something close to 950K. Barring major cap issues; I can't see him going anywhere.

Andreas Nodl: Same as Powe, but I think Nodl gets moved BEFORE Powe does as Matt Read is under contract for next year at 900K and he's a similar player to Nodl.

50% Chance of returning

Kris Versteeg: It's not his fault by any stretch the team struggled. He was hurt and all. That being said, 20 goal 20 assist guys who can play all 3 forward positions and PP/PK situations don't grow on trees. His cap hit is reasonable and he's an RFA in 2012. This could fetch something decent in a trade, especially if the Flyers need to create cap room.

Dan Carcillo: An RFA, who, no matter what, is one of many of his kind. Tom Sestito plays the same type of game and should be 250K cheaper. Because of this, I would think Carbomb's the odd man out.

Ville Leino: He's a UFA who disappeared during the playoffs. He's 28, and probably won't be better than the 19G 34A he had this season. He's not an elite offensive talent, and not a top line talent by any stretch. Because of that, he can walk and I personally, will not miss him.

Will Not Return

Nikolay Zherdev: his known attitude problems and clashing with Laviolette means Z is going to be either back in Russia, or on another NHL team.

I mentioned Betts earlier and I thought I toss in a trade idea.

Vancouver and Philadelphia both have major cap issues as well as mutual needs so I came up with this trade to solve both teams problems.

To PHL: Cory Schneider (G)

To VAN: Matt Carle (D), Blair Betts (C), Johan Backlund (G) 1st in 2012, 6th in 2011

Why this works: The Canucks probably won't be able to afford retaining the services of Christian Ehrhoff in the off-season so they'll need a new D-man to take his spot. Carle does this at about 60% of the cost of Ehrhoff which save Van about $2.1M in cap space. Johan Backlund is on a 1-way 800K contract, he would take over as Luongo's backup. Blair Betts would be the PK center that Manny Malholtra was since Manny has the eye problems. The picks make up for the fact that Cory Schneider is a legit NHL starter in the making.

Sound good?

Hartnell Down or Versteeg Down- The Final Numbers

Hartnell Down ended at 330, over 90 games, meaning he fell 3.3 times a game, or 1.1 times a period.




Other things involving 3.3 in the NHL:

-The average amount of goals per period allowed through the 5-hole of Michael Leighton

-Number (in millions of US Dollars) Glen Sather will overpay for a player.

-Amount of times Pierre McGuire says "leadership" per sentence when talking about MIKE "OMG LEADERSHIP!!1111!1!11!" Richards

-Amount of times, per shift, Jeff Carter shoots high and wide

-Amount of dives Robert Luongo takes per period

-Amount of headshots Matt Cooke gave me while I wrote this post

-Amount of goalie changes Peter Laviolette makes per post season game.

-Amount of healthy players the Flyers had left for game 4 against Boston.

-Amount of time, in seconds, Nikolay Zherdev gave a crap about defense during the entire regular season

-Amount of time, in seconds, Nikolay Zherdev was lazy during the post-season






Versteeg Down (18 for round 2; 26 for round 1 for a playoff total of 44)

44 by numbers:

-The number worn by Kimmo Timonen; the Finnish God of Defense

-The amount of time, in minutes, that Chris Pronger was fully healthy during playoffs

-The amount of shots, needed to score 45 goals, on the Flyers goaltending this year

-Amount of time, in years, before Paul Holmgren decides that goaltending is important

-Amount of headshots occurring per period in every NHL playoff game...if you trust people's reactions via Twitter

-Amount of time, in hours, Sean Avery can go without saying something stupid

-Amount of time, in seconds, it will take Glen Sather to overpay for a free agent on July 1

-Amount of new rumors, per day, linking big name UFA's Brad Richards and Christian Ehrhoff to the Toronto Maple Leafs

-Amount of rumors, per hour, claiming Tampa Bay is going to trade their captain, Vincent Lecavalier.

-Measure, in inches, of Tim Thomas's waist

-Amount of PIMs Chris Pronger had in 2010-11.

-Amount of elbows to head Chris Pronger throws per game

The Flyers 2011-12 Roster...what will change from now (Goalie+D edition)

Goalies:
Brian Boucher: 2012 contract UFA- gone, bye-bye, see ya…no need for Boosh now.

Johan Backlund: 2012 contract 800K, 1way- he should clear waivers again and be the AHL starter, if not, the claiming team is on the hook for his WHOLE salary

Michael Leighton: 2012 contract 1.55M, 1way- Michael Leighton waiver-saver is now Michael Leighton which is English for Roman Cechmanek. He’s gonna be in the AHL unless the Flyers are lucky enough to sucker someone into trading for him.

Sergei Bobrovsky: 2012 contract 1.75M cap hit, 2-way, waiver exempt- Bob’s the 1-A goalie next year…expect him to start 30-35 games if the Flyers get a solid vet to pair him with or 50-55 if the Bob-Leighton show is in effect

Defenseman:

Kimmo Timonen: 2012 contract 6.33M cap hit 1 way- If Kimmo retires, his cap hit goes away. If he stays, he’s probably going to have some offseason surgery to clean up any of the nagging problems. Hope he’s ready to go come September.

Braydon Coburn: 2012 contract 3.2M cap hit 1way- He’s going to back. One of the 2 most solid Flyers D-men this year, and he’s got a reasonable cap hit. This means he’s good to stay. Also, see below.

Matt Carle: 2012 contract 3.437M cap hit 1way- Here’s the guy who I think gets moved. His amazing regular season will be overshadowed by his playoff implosion. The regular season will be the selling point in trade negotiations. The buyer, in my opinion will be Vancouver. The Canucks need to replace the UFA Christian Ehrhoff who’s going to get a massive pay day on July 1. Matt Carle is a similar player, less talented, but also comes at half the cost. Carle to Vancouver for picks or Carle+2012 picks for Cory Schneider is possible.

Andrej Meszaros: 2012 contract 4.0M cap hit 1 way- The Flyers best D-man this season. Played solidly in the playoffs. Next year though, he is not going to be coddled at the number 5 slot. He’s gotta play big minutes because at 36/37, Pronger and Timonen are slowing down.

Chris Pronger: 2012 contract 4.921M cap hit 1 way, 35+- Pronger is on the books no matter what. He may however, spend time on LTIR for the first half of the season. He apparently has the same back problem Leighton had last year. So once again, this team needs to win without Pronger.

Sean O’Donnell: 2012 contract UFA- he’s 39 and was a pylon. Number 6 D-men can be replaced. If SOD wants to come back at say, 750K, it’s a good deal. If not, Gustafsson, Walker or another UFA can fill this role.

Oskars Bartulis: 2012 contract 600k cap hit 1 way: He’s back, the 7th D-man again

Matt Walker: 2012 contract 1.7M cap hit 1 way: He’s the SOD next season. If he stays healthy. If not, waive him and use the cap space to grab another player.


The forwards will come up Sunday. Feel free to ask questions.

How Peter Laviolette Picks His Starting Goaltender (Playoff Edition)

Many of you remember the goalie flowchart where I showed how Lavi picks his starting goalie. This is the playoff version.


Lavi rolls a pair of dice, depending on what comes up, Lavi picks the goalie:

snake eyes: Johan Backlund
pairs that aren't snake eyes: Michael Leighton
5,6,7,8,9 non pairs: Brian Boucher
3,4,10,11 non pairs: Sergei Bobrovsky



Now you know.

The Pronger Prayer

Thy Holy Leader:
Christopher Robert Pronger

As we all know, I find myself frequently attending the Cult Religion of the Most Snarky Holy Lord of Elbows, Christopher Robert Pronger. Well, in what I hope because a series, Lord Pronger has taught us how to properly pray.

(Editor's Note: OK, seriously now, we're not trying to offend anyone who is religious. It's a joke, this is a comedy blog. If you haven't figured this out yet, you're probably a Mets (well shit, can't use that joke now...) Washington Nationals fan. Or someone who thinks Mike Milbury is intelligent, in which case, there's no hope for you anyway.)

Our Pronger

Our Pronger, who throws the Elbows

Hollowed be their brains

The Elbows come

The slapshots zoom

On the PP as on even Strength

Give us today, our daily snark

And forgive us for stealing pucks

As they forgive you for stealing pucks against them

And lead us not to the golf course

But deliver us to Stanley Cups

Amen