Don't Trade Carter, Trade Hartnell Instead

(Author’s Note: I use the term SO to mean shootout in this article)

(Editor's Note: No humor today, I just realized it's been almost a week since I updated this site and I wanted to be sure you guys didn't think I forgot this place existed so I'm double posting a piece I wrote for HFL on why I think Carter should stay and Hartnell should go.)

The guys over at Broad Street Hockey have written several posts as to why Jeff Carter is not worth trading for a goalie. I myself have gone on record as saying the only player I could accept trading Jeff Carter for is Shea Weber. Anyway, I figure it best that to justify these feelings I should actually show the math behind it. In order to show why Carter is not worth a goalie, I will compare Jeff Carter + Sergei Bobrovsky to Ilya Bryzgalov.

Now, this comparison is based on an attempt to prove that losing Jeff Carter’s production will NOT be worth the bonus of a goalie. Think of it this way, the goals Carter scores will outpace the goals prevented by acquiring a top A+ talent goalie.

Jeff Carter had 36G 30A this season for a total of 66 points: that means that Jeff Carter had a hand in 66 goals in 80 games, this means that Jeff Carter created 0.825 Goals per game. This means that in order to replace Jeff Carter’s production, you need to account for AT LEAST 0.825 goals per game in whatever comes back AND keep the team under the salary cap while doing so. So, let’s try to do that shall we. Sergei Bobrovsky had a .915 SV% for a GAA of 2.59 after allowing 130 goals on 1527 shots in just over 3000 minutes of game time in 54 games played. Brian Boucher’s stats were almost identical so using Bob is a fair comparison.

So, when you multiply out Jeff Carter’s offensive production for 54 games instead of 80, you get 44.55 points, which in order to make the Flyers come out ahead means that I will round up to 45 points. So the new goalie would need to allow 85 goals in 54 games…that’s a pace that would DESTROY the current NHL record. The save percentage (based on the shots Bob faced) would be 99.944%. I’ll stop for a second: 99.944 SV%. That is unheard of. That is IMPOSSIBLE. The NHL record for SV% was set this past season by Tim Thomas, it was 93.8%. Now obviously, I’m not completely insane, I know that another forward would take the spot of Jeff Carter on the Flyers top-6.

So rather than stick to that 99.944% number I’m going to set a bar for this new goalie and look at what the replacement for Jeff Carter would have to put up in order to replace the 66 goals that Carter created. Let’s assume that the Flyers land Ilya Bryzgalov. For 3 of the last 4 seasons, Ilya has put up a 92 or 92.1 SV% and has a career SV% of 91.6%. I am going to be generous and say Bryzgalov posts a 92.5 SV% in 55 games as the Flyers goalie. I’m using 55 games because that’s close to what Bobrovsky played as the ‘starter’ this season for the Flyers. Now, let’s assume that because of the age of the Flyers star defenders, Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen, that the Flyers defense allows more shots through on this goalie, whoever he is, so in the 55 games, the Flyers allow 1600 shots on goal. This is an average of just over 29 shots per game up from 28.27 shots per game allowed against Bob last year.

To have a 92.5 SV% Bryzgalov would have to stop 1480 of 1600 shots, which means he allows 120 goals in 55 games for a GAA of 2.18 (this assumes no OT/SO or EN goals and that Bryz plays 60 minutes every game.)

Comparatively speaking, Bob’s 91.5 SV% during the same time: 1464 saves on 1600 shots or 136 goals allowed in 55 games for a GAA of 2.47. (Same rules regarding OT/SO/EN situations.) This means that Bryzgalov is stopping 16 goals that Carter would have scored. Keep the number 16 in mind for later. Jeff Carter created 66 goals in 80 games, since we’re basing our goalies on 55 games, Carter would create 46 goals in 55 games. (It’s actually 45.375, but I’m rounding up which guarantees that if the Flyers ‘break even’ in production terms they’re actually a tiny bit ahead.)

Now, since Bryzgalov is a 16 goal improvement over Bobrovsky in 55 games, we can subtract that 16 from Jeff Carter’s 46 in the 55 games to leave us with 30 goals that need to be accounted for in 55 games or .545 goals per game. This leads to the next question, where do you get a player who creates this type of offense. Well the first thing we’ll do is find out what ‘this kind of offense’ is over an 82 game season, the answer 42.73 points which we will round up to 43. Sounds easy right, finding a 43 point player; well it’s not, because guess what? Carter’s 5.27 cap hit is now on Bryzgalov which means you need to find 43 (or more) points in a player who (according to my calculations) would make less 2.625 against the cap.

Sounds easy right, but wait, ONE MORE THING, you have to replace Ville Leino’s 54 points (per season) as well with another 800K (Leino’s old salary) on the cap, which means, you need to get 2 players, who produce 97 points combined in 82 games with less than 3.1M to do it. This cap number assumes a 62M cap and LTIR of Ian Laperriere, waiving of Shelley, Leighton and Walker and resigning Nodl and Powe to reasonable hits based on their RFA qualifying numbers.

Now, there’s some internal solutions, for one: James van Riemsdyk will surely improve on his 21G 19A effort from 2010-11; 55 points for JvR seems reasonable so that increase of 15 points on his side comes out of the 97 points and knocks it down to 82. So we’re down 2 players costing less than 3.1M AND producing 82 points combined. Assuming Matt Read makes the NHL roster because of his 1-way contract, his NCAA numbers and a limited AHL sample suggest that he could produce like Andreas Nodl did this year, I’m going to be generous and give Matt Read 27 points over a full season. Read has a 900K cap hit. This leaves 2.2M in cap space and 55 points needed just to break even in terms of a full season of production. Can this be done? Yes if Ville Leino signs for 2.2 (he wants 3.5 or more) and has the exact same season, the Flyers break even on dealing Carter for Bryzgalov.

But I propose a counter solution. Trade Scott Hartnell (who has already once agreed his NTC, in 2009 to EDM for Sheldon Souray, but Souray would not waive his NTC) which frees up 4.2 in cap space. Have Matt Read’s 27 points fill in for Hartnell’s projected 50 points then use the remaining (2.625 (cap space)+3.3 Hartnell/Read difference) 5.925 to sign Vokoun at 4 and put 1.925 to signing another 25 point player (they exist at that price and my vote goes to Eric Belanger due to the fact that he’s also solid defensively as well) Here’s why: Vokoun’s save% will be about 92.2% behind the Flyers D and based off his career numbers that could be an understatement, he could very easily put up the 92.5 SV% I put on Bryzgalov. If Vokoun comes in he’s going to stop 11-15 more goals than Bob (92.2-92.4375 SV%) for a GAA of 2.27-2.20. (Again, like earlier, these calculations are based off 1600 shots faced in 55 games)

This means that the Flyers would come out ahead in terms of goals (same offensive production from Read + Belanger in Leino and Hartnell’s slots when JvR’s point increase and the fact that Carter’s got a 16 goal cushion because he’s staying.) And that’s how you win, by scoring more than the other team. This team, based on my calculations with these moves will do just that.

Emptying the Mailbag: Real DGS emails...

If you follow me on twitter, facebook, or read the site, you know that I love to talk. You also know that I pride myself on being able to answer anything tossed my way related to hockey. Well, sometimes it gets to be too much, whether it's the trolls, the idiots on the Flyers facebook page or spambots, I've been totally cursed had the pleasure of dealing with some people who make me question the idea of "user friendly computers." Chances are, if you're reading this, you are NOT someone who sent me one of these emails. But if someone is reading this to you, well, you really shouldn't play with the computer unsupervised.


(Editor's Note: I won't reveal the names or email addresses of the senders for privacy reasons.)


10. "In http://downgoesspezza.com/2010/08/dgs-special-investigation-series-how.html, I tried to make the same trades on my PS3, they didn't work, you lied to me."

Because, yeah, it's my fault that your season simulation in be a GM mode didn't yield the same player growth that mine did...

9. "If you think Bobrovsky and Boucher are good enough for the playoffs, you're an idiot, this team needs Leighton, why won't you tell Lavi to call him up?"

Because Re-entry waivers...

8. "Jeff Carter only scores on Lisa Hartnell, you were right to finally tell us that. He totally sucks and should be traded"

This is a satire blog, that transcript was clearly marked as fictional, also, Jeff Carter has a higher shooting percentage than Alex Ovechkin.

7. "Wait, why no discussion of the Phillies?"

Yes, the guy who sent this was serious, I actually laughed him off thinking it was a joke...


6. "What do mean Ilya Kovalchuk's a true enforcer? He's only got 4-5 fights ever."

This Post: http://downgoesspezza.com/2010/10/ilya-kovalchuk-comes-clean-about-why-he.html

You REALLY think I'm being serious now don't you...


5. "I'm sick of Rangers fans like you thinking they know hockey..."

Oh for the love of...READ MY BIO

4. "Jeff Carter sucks, why do you keep defending him."

Well for one, shooting percentage doesn't lie...he's shooting BETTER than Ovechkin this year...

3. "The Flyers should trade Brian Boucher and get a real goalie" I pointed out the salary cap..."that doesn't matter, if they wanted it, they could do it" Ok, who would give up a real goalie for Brian Boucher "well, if Boucher was packaged with Zherdev and draft picks, then the Flyers could have Vokoun"...yeah because the fact that the Flyers couldn't GIVE Zherdev away on waivers means someone would trade for him without some sort of catastrophic incident...plus the picks don't exist due to the Meszaros and Versteeg trades

2. "Stop talking about this team like you know it, you're a god damn bangwagoner who's gonna jump ship ths second this team falls out of first place"

Yeah...right


1. "Crosby SUCKS!!!!!!!"

No, he doesn't...I hate him, but that doesn't take away the fact that he's one of the best players in the game today...

DGS Podcast Episode 5: Kevin Sellathamby

Another Saturday, another podcast:


Today we got Kevin from In Lou We Trust.





Quick things we talk about (In no real order):

• Matt Cooke
• NHL Goonery and why Matt Cooke sucks
• The New York Rangers and why they suck
• The Devils sucking
• Flyers awesomeness
• TRADING TOMAS VOKOUN!
• Sean Avery?
• Raw Is PRONGER!
• Hockey Trivia