Just over a year ago I did a piece of NHL iPods talking about players favorite songs. It seems like it's time to do it again, This time with music videos!
Scott Hartnell:
Top 3 songs:
-Falling Down by the Birthday Massacre
-Falling by Lacuna Coil
-Falling Again by Lacuna Coil
Terry Pegula: Owner of the Buffalo Sabres
This always seemed to play for him...
Blair Betts: Bad pun on a name alert...
Paul Ranger: Where'd you go?
A Certain Philadelphia Reporter who loves to make up stories and is horribly incompetent:
What song better than "Storytime", something that implies everything is fiction.
Rick DiPietro: The Islander because no matter what, he's always going to be an Islander.
Antti Niemi: Nemo...what's better than a song named after you?
Rick Nash: Over the Hills and Far Away, which is basically him wanting out of Columbus...
The Carolina Hurricanes: Stone People, aka the Hurricanes Defense
Sergei Gonchar: For the Heart I Once Had...because once I got to Ottawa, I stopped giving a sh!t
Sieve Mason: Better Days....he's had them
Ville Leino: Wish You Were Here...as in...he wishes he was still on a line with Scott Hartnell and Danny Briere to carry him...
Finally: Charles Wang, NYI owner....Gimme Shelter...as in a new Arena
Showing posts with label Leino. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Leino. Show all posts
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Monday, July 18, 2011
The DGS Hockey Scouting Report
Most of you know that I used to play hockey. But there are some reasons as to why I don't play anymore, try to figure out my game through this scouting report.
The Down Goes Spezza Scouting Report
Height: 5'10
Weight: 155lbs
Position: Left Wing
Hands: This player is known for his ability to find the open guy like Ville Leino, but his shooting ability is akin to Andreas "No Goal" Nodl.
Skating: Scott Hartnell stays vertical more than DGS does.
Checking: Solid defensively and a great PK guy, kinda like Darrol Powe.
Discipline: His stick is all over the place, there's usually more stick fouls than Danny Briere on a bad night with this guy.
Health: His joints explode like Rick DiPietro. His bone's explode like Marion Gaborik. His brain explodes like Eric Lindros.
There, now you know something about me.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Don't Trade Carter, Trade Hartnell Instead
(Author’s Note: I use the term SO to mean shootout in this article)
(Editor's Note: No humor today, I just realized it's been almost a week since I updated this site and I wanted to be sure you guys didn't think I forgot this place existed so I'm double posting a piece I wrote for HFL on why I think Carter should stay and Hartnell should go.)
The guys over at Broad Street Hockey have written several posts as to why Jeff Carter is not worth trading for a goalie. I myself have gone on record as saying the only player I could accept trading Jeff Carter for is Shea Weber. Anyway, I figure it best that to justify these feelings I should actually show the math behind it. In order to show why Carter is not worth a goalie, I will compare Jeff Carter + Sergei Bobrovsky to Ilya Bryzgalov.
Now, this comparison is based on an attempt to prove that losing Jeff Carter’s production will NOT be worth the bonus of a goalie. Think of it this way, the goals Carter scores will outpace the goals prevented by acquiring a top A+ talent goalie.
Jeff Carter had 36G 30A this season for a total of 66 points: that means that Jeff Carter had a hand in 66 goals in 80 games, this means that Jeff Carter created 0.825 Goals per game. This means that in order to replace Jeff Carter’s production, you need to account for AT LEAST 0.825 goals per game in whatever comes back AND keep the team under the salary cap while doing so. So, let’s try to do that shall we. Sergei Bobrovsky had a .915 SV% for a GAA of 2.59 after allowing 130 goals on 1527 shots in just over 3000 minutes of game time in 54 games played. Brian Boucher’s stats were almost identical so using Bob is a fair comparison.
So, when you multiply out Jeff Carter’s offensive production for 54 games instead of 80, you get 44.55 points, which in order to make the Flyers come out ahead means that I will round up to 45 points. So the new goalie would need to allow 85 goals in 54 games…that’s a pace that would DESTROY the current NHL record. The save percentage (based on the shots Bob faced) would be 99.944%. I’ll stop for a second: 99.944 SV%. That is unheard of. That is IMPOSSIBLE. The NHL record for SV% was set this past season by Tim Thomas, it was 93.8%. Now obviously, I’m not completely insane, I know that another forward would take the spot of Jeff Carter on the Flyers top-6.
So rather than stick to that 99.944% number I’m going to set a bar for this new goalie and look at what the replacement for Jeff Carter would have to put up in order to replace the 66 goals that Carter created. Let’s assume that the Flyers land Ilya Bryzgalov. For 3 of the last 4 seasons, Ilya has put up a 92 or 92.1 SV% and has a career SV% of 91.6%. I am going to be generous and say Bryzgalov posts a 92.5 SV% in 55 games as the Flyers goalie. I’m using 55 games because that’s close to what Bobrovsky played as the ‘starter’ this season for the Flyers. Now, let’s assume that because of the age of the Flyers star defenders, Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen, that the Flyers defense allows more shots through on this goalie, whoever he is, so in the 55 games, the Flyers allow 1600 shots on goal. This is an average of just over 29 shots per game up from 28.27 shots per game allowed against Bob last year.
To have a 92.5 SV% Bryzgalov would have to stop 1480 of 1600 shots, which means he allows 120 goals in 55 games for a GAA of 2.18 (this assumes no OT/SO or EN goals and that Bryz plays 60 minutes every game.)
Comparatively speaking, Bob’s 91.5 SV% during the same time: 1464 saves on 1600 shots or 136 goals allowed in 55 games for a GAA of 2.47. (Same rules regarding OT/SO/EN situations.) This means that Bryzgalov is stopping 16 goals that Carter would have scored. Keep the number 16 in mind for later. Jeff Carter created 66 goals in 80 games, since we’re basing our goalies on 55 games, Carter would create 46 goals in 55 games. (It’s actually 45.375, but I’m rounding up which guarantees that if the Flyers ‘break even’ in production terms they’re actually a tiny bit ahead.)
Now, since Bryzgalov is a 16 goal improvement over Bobrovsky in 55 games, we can subtract that 16 from Jeff Carter’s 46 in the 55 games to leave us with 30 goals that need to be accounted for in 55 games or .545 goals per game. This leads to the next question, where do you get a player who creates this type of offense. Well the first thing we’ll do is find out what ‘this kind of offense’ is over an 82 game season, the answer 42.73 points which we will round up to 43. Sounds easy right, finding a 43 point player; well it’s not, because guess what? Carter’s 5.27 cap hit is now on Bryzgalov which means you need to find 43 (or more) points in a player who (according to my calculations) would make less 2.625 against the cap.
Sounds easy right, but wait, ONE MORE THING, you have to replace Ville Leino’s 54 points (per season) as well with another 800K (Leino’s old salary) on the cap, which means, you need to get 2 players, who produce 97 points combined in 82 games with less than 3.1M to do it. This cap number assumes a 62M cap and LTIR of Ian Laperriere, waiving of Shelley, Leighton and Walker and resigning Nodl and Powe to reasonable hits based on their RFA qualifying numbers.
Now, there’s some internal solutions, for one: James van Riemsdyk will surely improve on his 21G 19A effort from 2010-11; 55 points for JvR seems reasonable so that increase of 15 points on his side comes out of the 97 points and knocks it down to 82. So we’re down 2 players costing less than 3.1M AND producing 82 points combined. Assuming Matt Read makes the NHL roster because of his 1-way contract, his NCAA numbers and a limited AHL sample suggest that he could produce like Andreas Nodl did this year, I’m going to be generous and give Matt Read 27 points over a full season. Read has a 900K cap hit. This leaves 2.2M in cap space and 55 points needed just to break even in terms of a full season of production. Can this be done? Yes if Ville Leino signs for 2.2 (he wants 3.5 or more) and has the exact same season, the Flyers break even on dealing Carter for Bryzgalov.
But I propose a counter solution. Trade Scott Hartnell (who has already once agreed his NTC, in 2009 to EDM for Sheldon Souray, but Souray would not waive his NTC) which frees up 4.2 in cap space. Have Matt Read’s 27 points fill in for Hartnell’s projected 50 points then use the remaining (2.625 (cap space)+3.3 Hartnell/Read difference) 5.925 to sign Vokoun at 4 and put 1.925 to signing another 25 point player (they exist at that price and my vote goes to Eric Belanger due to the fact that he’s also solid defensively as well) Here’s why: Vokoun’s save% will be about 92.2% behind the Flyers D and based off his career numbers that could be an understatement, he could very easily put up the 92.5 SV% I put on Bryzgalov. If Vokoun comes in he’s going to stop 11-15 more goals than Bob (92.2-92.4375 SV%) for a GAA of 2.27-2.20. (Again, like earlier, these calculations are based off 1600 shots faced in 55 games)
This means that the Flyers would come out ahead in terms of goals (same offensive production from Read + Belanger in Leino and Hartnell’s slots when JvR’s point increase and the fact that Carter’s got a 16 goal cushion because he’s staying.) And that’s how you win, by scoring more than the other team. This team, based on my calculations with these moves will do just that.
(Editor's Note: No humor today, I just realized it's been almost a week since I updated this site and I wanted to be sure you guys didn't think I forgot this place existed so I'm double posting a piece I wrote for HFL on why I think Carter should stay and Hartnell should go.)
The guys over at Broad Street Hockey have written several posts as to why Jeff Carter is not worth trading for a goalie. I myself have gone on record as saying the only player I could accept trading Jeff Carter for is Shea Weber. Anyway, I figure it best that to justify these feelings I should actually show the math behind it. In order to show why Carter is not worth a goalie, I will compare Jeff Carter + Sergei Bobrovsky to Ilya Bryzgalov.
Now, this comparison is based on an attempt to prove that losing Jeff Carter’s production will NOT be worth the bonus of a goalie. Think of it this way, the goals Carter scores will outpace the goals prevented by acquiring a top A+ talent goalie.
Jeff Carter had 36G 30A this season for a total of 66 points: that means that Jeff Carter had a hand in 66 goals in 80 games, this means that Jeff Carter created 0.825 Goals per game. This means that in order to replace Jeff Carter’s production, you need to account for AT LEAST 0.825 goals per game in whatever comes back AND keep the team under the salary cap while doing so. So, let’s try to do that shall we. Sergei Bobrovsky had a .915 SV% for a GAA of 2.59 after allowing 130 goals on 1527 shots in just over 3000 minutes of game time in 54 games played. Brian Boucher’s stats were almost identical so using Bob is a fair comparison.
So, when you multiply out Jeff Carter’s offensive production for 54 games instead of 80, you get 44.55 points, which in order to make the Flyers come out ahead means that I will round up to 45 points. So the new goalie would need to allow 85 goals in 54 games…that’s a pace that would DESTROY the current NHL record. The save percentage (based on the shots Bob faced) would be 99.944%. I’ll stop for a second: 99.944 SV%. That is unheard of. That is IMPOSSIBLE. The NHL record for SV% was set this past season by Tim Thomas, it was 93.8%. Now obviously, I’m not completely insane, I know that another forward would take the spot of Jeff Carter on the Flyers top-6.
So rather than stick to that 99.944% number I’m going to set a bar for this new goalie and look at what the replacement for Jeff Carter would have to put up in order to replace the 66 goals that Carter created. Let’s assume that the Flyers land Ilya Bryzgalov. For 3 of the last 4 seasons, Ilya has put up a 92 or 92.1 SV% and has a career SV% of 91.6%. I am going to be generous and say Bryzgalov posts a 92.5 SV% in 55 games as the Flyers goalie. I’m using 55 games because that’s close to what Bobrovsky played as the ‘starter’ this season for the Flyers. Now, let’s assume that because of the age of the Flyers star defenders, Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen, that the Flyers defense allows more shots through on this goalie, whoever he is, so in the 55 games, the Flyers allow 1600 shots on goal. This is an average of just over 29 shots per game up from 28.27 shots per game allowed against Bob last year.
To have a 92.5 SV% Bryzgalov would have to stop 1480 of 1600 shots, which means he allows 120 goals in 55 games for a GAA of 2.18 (this assumes no OT/SO or EN goals and that Bryz plays 60 minutes every game.)
Comparatively speaking, Bob’s 91.5 SV% during the same time: 1464 saves on 1600 shots or 136 goals allowed in 55 games for a GAA of 2.47. (Same rules regarding OT/SO/EN situations.) This means that Bryzgalov is stopping 16 goals that Carter would have scored. Keep the number 16 in mind for later. Jeff Carter created 66 goals in 80 games, since we’re basing our goalies on 55 games, Carter would create 46 goals in 55 games. (It’s actually 45.375, but I’m rounding up which guarantees that if the Flyers ‘break even’ in production terms they’re actually a tiny bit ahead.)
Now, since Bryzgalov is a 16 goal improvement over Bobrovsky in 55 games, we can subtract that 16 from Jeff Carter’s 46 in the 55 games to leave us with 30 goals that need to be accounted for in 55 games or .545 goals per game. This leads to the next question, where do you get a player who creates this type of offense. Well the first thing we’ll do is find out what ‘this kind of offense’ is over an 82 game season, the answer 42.73 points which we will round up to 43. Sounds easy right, finding a 43 point player; well it’s not, because guess what? Carter’s 5.27 cap hit is now on Bryzgalov which means you need to find 43 (or more) points in a player who (according to my calculations) would make less 2.625 against the cap.
Sounds easy right, but wait, ONE MORE THING, you have to replace Ville Leino’s 54 points (per season) as well with another 800K (Leino’s old salary) on the cap, which means, you need to get 2 players, who produce 97 points combined in 82 games with less than 3.1M to do it. This cap number assumes a 62M cap and LTIR of Ian Laperriere, waiving of Shelley, Leighton and Walker and resigning Nodl and Powe to reasonable hits based on their RFA qualifying numbers.
Now, there’s some internal solutions, for one: James van Riemsdyk will surely improve on his 21G 19A effort from 2010-11; 55 points for JvR seems reasonable so that increase of 15 points on his side comes out of the 97 points and knocks it down to 82. So we’re down 2 players costing less than 3.1M AND producing 82 points combined. Assuming Matt Read makes the NHL roster because of his 1-way contract, his NCAA numbers and a limited AHL sample suggest that he could produce like Andreas Nodl did this year, I’m going to be generous and give Matt Read 27 points over a full season. Read has a 900K cap hit. This leaves 2.2M in cap space and 55 points needed just to break even in terms of a full season of production. Can this be done? Yes if Ville Leino signs for 2.2 (he wants 3.5 or more) and has the exact same season, the Flyers break even on dealing Carter for Bryzgalov.
But I propose a counter solution. Trade Scott Hartnell (who has already once agreed his NTC, in 2009 to EDM for Sheldon Souray, but Souray would not waive his NTC) which frees up 4.2 in cap space. Have Matt Read’s 27 points fill in for Hartnell’s projected 50 points then use the remaining (2.625 (cap space)+3.3 Hartnell/Read difference) 5.925 to sign Vokoun at 4 and put 1.925 to signing another 25 point player (they exist at that price and my vote goes to Eric Belanger due to the fact that he’s also solid defensively as well) Here’s why: Vokoun’s save% will be about 92.2% behind the Flyers D and based off his career numbers that could be an understatement, he could very easily put up the 92.5 SV% I put on Bryzgalov. If Vokoun comes in he’s going to stop 11-15 more goals than Bob (92.2-92.4375 SV%) for a GAA of 2.27-2.20. (Again, like earlier, these calculations are based off 1600 shots faced in 55 games)
This means that the Flyers would come out ahead in terms of goals (same offensive production from Read + Belanger in Leino and Hartnell’s slots when JvR’s point increase and the fact that Carter’s got a 16 goal cushion because he’s staying.) And that’s how you win, by scoring more than the other team. This team, based on my calculations with these moves will do just that.
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Caption Contest 10
Caption Contest 10: write better than what I got and win a prize*.
(*-Prize TBD DGS Staff at a later date.)
(*-Prize TBD DGS Staff at a later date.)
 |
| Ville's Jealous, but why? |
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
What The Flyers Want For Christmas
Hey, it's getting close to Christmas and you know what that means. It's that time where people start making their lists of what they want. Needless to say the DGS SuperSpies were able to get a list of what some of the Flyers want for Christmas. In hopes that the gifts are received by the team, we've posted the list here for you to see.
Chris Pronger: I'm kinda hoping he's asking for me, but more realistically it's probably targets for his elbows to hit.
Peter Laviollette: A working power play unit.
Ville Leino: A new contract.
Claude Giroux: More grilled cheese sandwiches
Daniel Carcillo: That Nikolay Zherdev keeps being Nikolay Zherdev.
Sergei Bobrovsky: Getting a shutout, hopefully in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals
Brian Boucher: Employment, anywhere, just not in Russia
Eric Wellwood: To NOT become Kyle Wellwood
Nikolay Zherdev: Judging by his recent performances, I'd say he would like to learn how to pass
Mike Richards: PK Subban's head on a platter
Jeff Carter: Lisa Hartnell...wait no..sorry...Jeff wouldn't be asking for something he has...Jeff Carter wants the ability to not go high and wide
Scott Hartnell: Lisa Hartnell
Paul Holmgren: The ability to do math.
Darroll Powe: More time hanging out with guys like Max Lapierre.
Chris Pronger: I'm kinda hoping he's asking for me, but more realistically it's probably targets for his elbows to hit.
Peter Laviollette: A working power play unit.
Ville Leino: A new contract.
Claude Giroux: More grilled cheese sandwiches
Daniel Carcillo: That Nikolay Zherdev keeps being Nikolay Zherdev.
Sergei Bobrovsky: Getting a shutout, hopefully in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals
Brian Boucher: Employment, anywhere, just not in Russia
Eric Wellwood: To NOT become Kyle Wellwood
Nikolay Zherdev: Judging by his recent performances, I'd say he would like to learn how to pass
Mike Richards: PK Subban's head on a platter
Jeff Carter: Lisa Hartnell...wait no..sorry...Jeff wouldn't be asking for something he has...Jeff Carter wants the ability to not go high and wide
Scott Hartnell: Lisa Hartnell
Paul Holmgren: The ability to do math.
Darroll Powe: More time hanging out with guys like Max Lapierre.
Friday, August 13, 2010
This Left Feels Right: Wings that is
Today, we start looking at the Flyers wings. Like my pieces on goaltending, defense, and centers, we're gonna talk about the wings.
Dan Carcillo: Should be an effective player during the 4 minutes of time he gets to show his talents when not in the penalty box or serving a suspension. Should be traded at the deadline with the worst defensemen we have to the Maple Leafs for Luke Schenn, ala Downie/Eminger for Matt Carle.
Riley Cote: Unlike Brett Favre, I expect Riley to stay retired.
Claude Giroux: The little guy is gonna step up his game, finally bringing his playmaking skills to the regular season as well as the playoffs. If not, well, then he won't get a pick RFA payday at the end of the year.
Scott Hartnell: Hopefully will speed up due to the lack of resistance of the hair that he finally cut.
Ian Laperriere: Should find a clever way to break his face during the season even though he will be wearing a shield.
Ville Leino: If he's the 2nd coming of Gagne, then I will stop hating the Gagne trade, and replace it with great disdain.
Darroll Powe: Will hopefully be the new Arron Asham type player, in that he can score 10-12 goals, and hopefully be effective as a role player. Will kill penalties with a Betts-like effectiveness, no jokes here.
Jody Shelley: AHL Bus please, but will probably be a more expensive Cote. Hopefully he scores at the same pace with the Flyers, that he scored against the Flyers last year...then I won't totally hate him.*
Nik Zherdev: Back to Russia! Give me Simon!
James van Riemsdyk: Trade bait please? I'd deal him and Meszaros for Kaberle, too bad JFJ is no longer the Leafs GM.
*- Offer null and void if the guy gives me awesome fights.
Dan Carcillo: Should be an effective player during the 4 minutes of time he gets to show his talents when not in the penalty box or serving a suspension. Should be traded at the deadline with the worst defensemen we have to the Maple Leafs for Luke Schenn, ala Downie/Eminger for Matt Carle.
Riley Cote: Unlike Brett Favre, I expect Riley to stay retired.
Claude Giroux: The little guy is gonna step up his game, finally bringing his playmaking skills to the regular season as well as the playoffs. If not, well, then he won't get a pick RFA payday at the end of the year.
Scott Hartnell: Hopefully will speed up due to the lack of resistance of the hair that he finally cut.
Ian Laperriere: Should find a clever way to break his face during the season even though he will be wearing a shield.
Ville Leino: If he's the 2nd coming of Gagne, then I will stop hating the Gagne trade, and replace it with great disdain.
Darroll Powe: Will hopefully be the new Arron Asham type player, in that he can score 10-12 goals, and hopefully be effective as a role player. Will kill penalties with a Betts-like effectiveness, no jokes here.
Jody Shelley: AHL Bus please, but will probably be a more expensive Cote. Hopefully he scores at the same pace with the Flyers, that he scored against the Flyers last year...then I won't totally hate him.*
Nik Zherdev: Back to Russia! Give me Simon!
James van Riemsdyk: Trade bait please? I'd deal him and Meszaros for Kaberle, too bad JFJ is no longer the Leafs GM.
*- Offer null and void if the guy gives me awesome fights.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Reasonable Expectations: Andrej Meszaros and the rest of the Defense
Well, it is time once again for everyone to climb aboard the D-Train.
Just as we looked at the Flyers goaltending situation a few weeks ago, DGS is now taking a look at the defense corps. This time, we include best case scenario stat predictions for our Defensemen.
As in the Flyers defense, and this is a somewhat serious post as to what we can expect from our Flyers defensemen this year.
Once again, I have to make this perfectly clear: There is a huge DGS thank you to Don't Trade Vinny for his help with a lot of what you're seeing this week. I honestly could not have come up with all this without him.
Defensemen
3 Oskars Bartulis
6' 2" 184
Jan 21, 1987
Ogre, LVA
09-10 regular season stats
PHL: 53GP 1G 8A 9P 28PIMs
Review in a word: Ordinary
In a sentence: Bartulis didn't wow anyone, but for the most part, he also avoided major mess ups as well.
Forecast: he's gonna spell the 6 regulars and be the first guy inserted due to injury.
10-11 Numbers: 20GP 0g 5A 5P 10PIMs but plays solid D when we need him to
25 Matt Carle
6' 0" 205
Sep 25, 1984
Anchorage, AK, USA
09-10 regular season stats
80GP 6G 29A 35P 16PIMs
Review in a word: Suprising
In a sentence: Carle lived up this 3.437 cap hit and proved that he can be a future #2 NHL d-man.
Forecast: Can he repeat with improvements, Pronger and Timonen are both turning 36 this year, which means Carle and Coburn need to step it up and take on bigger minutes.
10-11 Numbers: 80GP 10g 35A 45P 20PIMs
5 Braydon Coburn
6' 5" 220
Feb 27, 1985
Shaunavon, SK, CAN
09-10 regular season stats
81GP 5G 14A 19P 54PIMs
Review in a word: Dissappointing
In a sentence: Coburn was horribly inconsistent during the regular season and honestly got way more than he should have on his contract.
Forecast: Like Matt Carle, Braydon Coburn needs to step up if the Flyers have a shot at repeating as Eastern Conference Champions.
10-11 Numbers: 80GP 7g 18A 25P 70PIMs
41 Andrej Meszaros
6' 2" 223
Oct 13, 1985
Povazska Bystrica, SVK
09-10 regular season stats (w/ TBL)
81GP 6G 11A 17P 50PIMs
Review in a word: Disaster
In a sentence: He can only go up, right?
Forecast: $4 million for #5 D-man, I swear, he better be good at something before Holmgren convinces Sutter to take Mesz for a first rounder
10-11 Numbers: 80GP 5g 15A 20P 50PIMs
6 Sean O'Donnell
6' 2" 237
Oct 13, 1971
Ottawa, ON, CAN
09-10 regular season stats (W/ LAK)
78GP 3G 12A 15P 70PIMs
Review in a word: Dependable
In a sentence: Solid proven winner with great leadership skills, enough said.
Forecast: Just needs to hold down the fort like he did in 2007 when the Ducks won the cup, I am not asking for much, just to be better than Ryan Parent.
10-11 Numbers: 70GP 2g 8A 10P 80PIMs
20 Chris Pronger
6' 6" 220
Oct 10, 1974
Dryden, ON, CAN
09-10 regular season stats
82GP 10G 45A 55P 79PIMs
Review in a word: Divine
In a sentence: Chris Pronger is awesome, divine and amazing.
Forecast: He turns 36, can he still keep it going.
10-11 Numbers: 80GP 7g 33A 40P 90PIMs
44 Kimmo Timonen
5' 10" 194
Mar 18, 1975
Kuopio, FIN
09-10 regular season stats
82GP 6G 33A 39P 50PIMs
Review in a word: Dependable
In a sentence: I love Kimmo, I do, but, at the same time, I'm reminded that Kimmo carries a 6.33 cap hit, then I don't love him so much anymore.
Forecast: He's old, and on the downside, this could be scary, or amazing.
10-11 Numbers: 80GP 5g 25A 30P 40PIMs
8 Matt Walker
6' 4" 215
Apr 7, 1980
Beaverlodge, AB, CAN
09-10 regular season stats (w/ TBL)
66GP 2G 3A 5P 90PIMs
Review in a word: Suck
In a sentence: It's Jimmy Vandermeer version 2.
Forecast: Should spend most of his time in the AHL.
10-11 Numbers: 30GP 0g 0A 0P 70PIMs
Other thoughts:
Meszaros's career numbers are like Coburn's so, I'm hoping that if the 2 of them get their stuff together then, good things will happen, if not, well, then I'm hoping we can pass them off to Calgary for something good.
Holmgren does have a habit of trading horrible defensemen for good things:
Case 1: Zhitnik for Coburn
Case 2: Downie/Eminger for Carle
Case 3: Tollefsen for Leino
Just as we looked at the Flyers goaltending situation a few weeks ago, DGS is now taking a look at the defense corps. This time, we include best case scenario stat predictions for our Defensemen.
As in the Flyers defense, and this is a somewhat serious post as to what we can expect from our Flyers defensemen this year.
Once again, I have to make this perfectly clear: There is a huge DGS thank you to Don't Trade Vinny for his help with a lot of what you're seeing this week. I honestly could not have come up with all this without him.
Defensemen
3 Oskars Bartulis
6' 2" 184
Jan 21, 1987
Ogre, LVA
09-10 regular season stats
PHL: 53GP 1G 8A 9P 28PIMs
Review in a word: Ordinary
In a sentence: Bartulis didn't wow anyone, but for the most part, he also avoided major mess ups as well.
Forecast: he's gonna spell the 6 regulars and be the first guy inserted due to injury.
10-11 Numbers: 20GP 0g 5A 5P 10PIMs but plays solid D when we need him to
25 Matt Carle
6' 0" 205
Sep 25, 1984
Anchorage, AK, USA
09-10 regular season stats
80GP 6G 29A 35P 16PIMs
Review in a word: Suprising
In a sentence: Carle lived up this 3.437 cap hit and proved that he can be a future #2 NHL d-man.
Forecast: Can he repeat with improvements, Pronger and Timonen are both turning 36 this year, which means Carle and Coburn need to step it up and take on bigger minutes.
10-11 Numbers: 80GP 10g 35A 45P 20PIMs
5 Braydon Coburn
6' 5" 220
Feb 27, 1985
Shaunavon, SK, CAN
09-10 regular season stats
81GP 5G 14A 19P 54PIMs
Review in a word: Dissappointing
In a sentence: Coburn was horribly inconsistent during the regular season and honestly got way more than he should have on his contract.
Forecast: Like Matt Carle, Braydon Coburn needs to step up if the Flyers have a shot at repeating as Eastern Conference Champions.
10-11 Numbers: 80GP 7g 18A 25P 70PIMs
41 Andrej Meszaros
6' 2" 223
Oct 13, 1985
Povazska Bystrica, SVK
09-10 regular season stats (w/ TBL)
81GP 6G 11A 17P 50PIMs
Review in a word: Disaster
In a sentence: He can only go up, right?
Forecast: $4 million for #5 D-man, I swear, he better be good at something before Holmgren convinces Sutter to take Mesz for a first rounder
10-11 Numbers: 80GP 5g 15A 20P 50PIMs
6 Sean O'Donnell
6' 2" 237
Oct 13, 1971
Ottawa, ON, CAN
09-10 regular season stats (W/ LAK)
78GP 3G 12A 15P 70PIMs
Review in a word: Dependable
In a sentence: Solid proven winner with great leadership skills, enough said.
Forecast: Just needs to hold down the fort like he did in 2007 when the Ducks won the cup, I am not asking for much, just to be better than Ryan Parent.
10-11 Numbers: 70GP 2g 8A 10P 80PIMs
20 Chris Pronger
6' 6" 220
Oct 10, 1974
Dryden, ON, CAN
09-10 regular season stats
82GP 10G 45A 55P 79PIMs
Review in a word: Divine
In a sentence: Chris Pronger is awesome, divine and amazing.
Forecast: He turns 36, can he still keep it going.
10-11 Numbers: 80GP 7g 33A 40P 90PIMs
44 Kimmo Timonen
5' 10" 194
Mar 18, 1975
Kuopio, FIN
09-10 regular season stats
82GP 6G 33A 39P 50PIMs
Review in a word: Dependable
In a sentence: I love Kimmo, I do, but, at the same time, I'm reminded that Kimmo carries a 6.33 cap hit, then I don't love him so much anymore.
Forecast: He's old, and on the downside, this could be scary, or amazing.
10-11 Numbers: 80GP 5g 25A 30P 40PIMs
8 Matt Walker
6' 4" 215
Apr 7, 1980
Beaverlodge, AB, CAN
09-10 regular season stats (w/ TBL)
66GP 2G 3A 5P 90PIMs
Review in a word: Suck
In a sentence: It's Jimmy Vandermeer version 2.
Forecast: Should spend most of his time in the AHL.
10-11 Numbers: 30GP 0g 0A 0P 70PIMs
Other thoughts:
Meszaros's career numbers are like Coburn's so, I'm hoping that if the 2 of them get their stuff together then, good things will happen, if not, well, then I'm hoping we can pass them off to Calgary for something good.
Holmgren does have a habit of trading horrible defensemen for good things:
Case 1: Zhitnik for Coburn
Case 2: Downie/Eminger for Carle
Case 3: Tollefsen for Leino
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Seeing the Brightside, A DGS look at the Gagne trade
I've waited to post this, mainly because I wanted to avoid an unoriginal and pathetic rant about how much I miss Simon. Quite honestly, for that, my Twitter feed to the right should have supplied plenty of that. (Ain't I right DTV?)
With that, I recently posted an analysis on Blades of Funny of some of Holmgren's trades, here's what I came up...reposted here for my loyal DGS-ers
Let’s take a quick look on some of Paul Holmgren’s odd moves
Case 1: Trading Alex Zhitnik to ATL for Braydon Coburn
Well, this was basically a steal for the Flyers
Case 2: Trading Peter Forsberg to Nashville for Upshall, Parent and 2 draft picks
Then trading the picks back to NSH for Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen
ok, so Parent’s back in NSH, Upshall got kicked to Phoenix for Carcillo, Kimmo and Harts are gonna end up killing our cap barring some more moves, but these guys did produce in Philly (except Parent in the Finals)
Case 3: Upshall to PHX for Dan Carcillo
I dislike Carcillo, no denials, but the fact is, Upshall wasn’t gonna see top line time as an RW with Joffrey Lupul and Mike Knuble ahead of him. Well, what if he stayed for 09-10 you say, and I say fine, where would Briere, Carter, Giroux, Lappy be moved to in order to find a slot for Upshall. I love Upshall, yes, but he wasn’t gonna fit in and so getting something for him was a good deal.
Case 4: Parent to NSH for a 7th rounder and Rights to Dam Hamhuis,
NSH 7th Rounder to SJS for Rights to Nabby
Rights to Dan Hamhuis to Pittsburgh for a 3rd Rounder
Wait, Ryan Parent, Ryan F-ing Parent for a third rounder from the Penguins, uhh, steal…duh
Case 5: Ole Tollefsen and 2nd rounder for Ville Leino
Tollefsen’s in the SEL, and Leino lit up everyone he saw in the playoffs, epic win enough said.
So, Holmgren has a knack for getting stuff done…trading Gagne and 2nd round pick for a 4th, Meszaros and Walker might just work out…if not, then my final example…
Case 6: Steve Eminger and Steve Downie to Tampa for Matt Carle…yes Homer has a way of moving Bad D-men out for good ones…
my pick for the 2010 edition
Andrej Meszaros and Dan Carcillo somewhere for a D-man who doesn't suck...guess that excludes Wade Redden, Tomas Kaberle, and Mike Green*
*-(Editor's Note: Why Mike Green made a list of DEFENSEMEN is beyond me)
I wish Gagne the best of luck but if he comes up gimpy in a game with the groin, or takes a Matt Cooke elbow…I won’t be surprised
With that, I recently posted an analysis on Blades of Funny of some of Holmgren's trades, here's what I came up...reposted here for my loyal DGS-ers
Let’s take a quick look on some of Paul Holmgren’s odd moves
Case 1: Trading Alex Zhitnik to ATL for Braydon Coburn
Well, this was basically a steal for the Flyers
Case 2: Trading Peter Forsberg to Nashville for Upshall, Parent and 2 draft picks
Then trading the picks back to NSH for Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen
ok, so Parent’s back in NSH, Upshall got kicked to Phoenix for Carcillo, Kimmo and Harts are gonna end up killing our cap barring some more moves, but these guys did produce in Philly (except Parent in the Finals)
Case 3: Upshall to PHX for Dan Carcillo
I dislike Carcillo, no denials, but the fact is, Upshall wasn’t gonna see top line time as an RW with Joffrey Lupul and Mike Knuble ahead of him. Well, what if he stayed for 09-10 you say, and I say fine, where would Briere, Carter, Giroux, Lappy be moved to in order to find a slot for Upshall. I love Upshall, yes, but he wasn’t gonna fit in and so getting something for him was a good deal.
Case 4: Parent to NSH for a 7th rounder and Rights to Dam Hamhuis,
NSH 7th Rounder to SJS for Rights to Nabby
Rights to Dan Hamhuis to Pittsburgh for a 3rd Rounder
Wait, Ryan Parent, Ryan F-ing Parent for a third rounder from the Penguins, uhh, steal…duh
Case 5: Ole Tollefsen and 2nd rounder for Ville Leino
Tollefsen’s in the SEL, and Leino lit up everyone he saw in the playoffs, epic win enough said.
So, Holmgren has a knack for getting stuff done…trading Gagne and 2nd round pick for a 4th, Meszaros and Walker might just work out…if not, then my final example…
Case 6: Steve Eminger and Steve Downie to Tampa for Matt Carle…yes Homer has a way of moving Bad D-men out for good ones…
my pick for the 2010 edition
Andrej Meszaros and Dan Carcillo somewhere for a D-man who doesn't suck...guess that excludes Wade Redden, Tomas Kaberle, and Mike Green*
*-(Editor's Note: Why Mike Green made a list of DEFENSEMEN is beyond me)
I wish Gagne the best of luck but if he comes up gimpy in a game with the groin, or takes a Matt Cooke elbow…I won’t be surprised
Monday, June 14, 2010
Flyers Summer 2010 Offseason Needs, Part 1
So, with the season over, and sometime to digest the second place finish in the NHL. I will once again say this, congratulations to the Philadelphia Flyers, winners of the Prince of Wales trophy.
Well, with the season officially over, one must now look at the upcoming offseason, so I’m going to post what the Flyers need. For the record, I get all of my salary cap numbers from here so if you need to dispute me on something, that’s my source.
Now in order to start this, I'm gonna look at the 09-10 forwards based on the last lineup the Flyers dressed:
Gagne-Richards-Carter
Hartnell-Briere-Leino
JvR-Giroux-Asham
Powe-Betts-Lappy
Scratches: Carcillo, Cote, Laliberte, Nodl, Ross
How I think 10-11 will shape up:
Hartnell-Briere-Leino (Seriously, after their Finals showing, how can this NOT be the top line)
Richards-Carter-Giroux (Giroux's pretty goals IMO bump him up)
Gagne-JvR-Asham (JvR's been taking shifts in practice at center, like Giroux in 09-10, third line reps will get him experience)
Powe/Nodl/Laliberte-Betts-Lappy
Asham's UFA but if he resigns for say...2 years 750K, I'd be really happy
Carcillo's an interesting case, I have an up and down relationship with him. Asham does everything Carbomb does, with more discipline and better hands, but Carcillo's got a unique energy about him that lends itself to playing in Philly, I'm willing to keep him around for no more than 1.3 Million, at the same time, if we can trade him and land someone like a true #1 goalie
That's right, I peg 11 or all 12 of the forwards to return next year. Scott Hartnell saved his butt by having the Finals that he did, that being said, in my humble opinion, I think he's also the most likely to be moved. More on that later.
Who's expendable
The Player: Scott Hartnell
Why Expendable: Didn't perform well during the season and doesn't fit Lavi's up tempo system
Why He'd Be Wanted: His postseason numbers
Possible Destination: Toronto for Tomas Kaberle, Boston for Tim Thomas, Montreal for a first round draft pick or PK Subban, San Jose (Assuming Nabby stays and Marleau walks) for Thomas Greiss
The Player: Brian Boucher
Why Expendable: His regular season numbers
Why He'd Be Wanted: His 5 playoff games against the Devils
Possible Destination: Montreal, Dallas, San Jose, Chicago
To Montreal: For Carey Price in order to allow the Habs the cap space to keep Halak
To Dallas: for a 2nd round draft pick and a decent prospect D-man
To Chicago: For Dustin Byfuglien, I might be dreaming here but as WWEh noticed, the 'Hawks have massive cap problems next year and they could save ~$2 million
To San Jose: Assuming Nabby leaves and Marleau stays, the Sharks need a goaltender who comes cheap, that's Boucher, the Flyers could hopefully get a 4th round pick and a decent D-man for him
The Player: Andreas Nodl
Why Expendable: Too much depth at forward
Why He'd be Wanted: Solid depth forward, never will be above third line status, comes cheap
Possible Destination: Toronto, Montreal, Tampa Bay, Florida
To Toronto: oh wait, sorry, Burke won't trade for a European
To Montreal: The Habs DID trade for Scott Gomez...so, yeah...maybe Nodl goes here
Tampa Bay: Matt Smaby could play D for us, but honestly, TBL has nothing I'd really be interested in...other than Vinny, but a package of Hartnell, Nodl and Boucher for Vinny...seems fair to me...DTV is gonna shoot himself now...
The Needs:
this is easier to look at:
A real third D-pair
a real goalie
Later this week, I plan on doing a free agency based post with where the Flyers should go
Well, with the season officially over, one must now look at the upcoming offseason, so I’m going to post what the Flyers need. For the record, I get all of my salary cap numbers from here so if you need to dispute me on something, that’s my source.
Now in order to start this, I'm gonna look at the 09-10 forwards based on the last lineup the Flyers dressed:
Gagne-Richards-Carter
Hartnell-Briere-Leino
JvR-Giroux-Asham
Powe-Betts-Lappy
Scratches: Carcillo, Cote, Laliberte, Nodl, Ross
How I think 10-11 will shape up:
Hartnell-Briere-Leino (Seriously, after their Finals showing, how can this NOT be the top line)
Richards-Carter-Giroux (Giroux's pretty goals IMO bump him up)
Gagne-JvR-Asham (JvR's been taking shifts in practice at center, like Giroux in 09-10, third line reps will get him experience)
Powe/Nodl/Laliberte-Betts-Lappy
Asham's UFA but if he resigns for say...2 years 750K, I'd be really happy
Carcillo's an interesting case, I have an up and down relationship with him. Asham does everything Carbomb does, with more discipline and better hands, but Carcillo's got a unique energy about him that lends itself to playing in Philly, I'm willing to keep him around for no more than 1.3 Million, at the same time, if we can trade him and land someone like a true #1 goalie
That's right, I peg 11 or all 12 of the forwards to return next year. Scott Hartnell saved his butt by having the Finals that he did, that being said, in my humble opinion, I think he's also the most likely to be moved. More on that later.
Who's expendable
The Player: Scott Hartnell
Why Expendable: Didn't perform well during the season and doesn't fit Lavi's up tempo system
Why He'd Be Wanted: His postseason numbers
Possible Destination: Toronto for Tomas Kaberle, Boston for Tim Thomas, Montreal for a first round draft pick or PK Subban, San Jose (Assuming Nabby stays and Marleau walks) for Thomas Greiss
The Player: Brian Boucher
Why Expendable: His regular season numbers
Why He'd Be Wanted: His 5 playoff games against the Devils
Possible Destination: Montreal, Dallas, San Jose, Chicago
To Montreal: For Carey Price in order to allow the Habs the cap space to keep Halak
To Dallas: for a 2nd round draft pick and a decent prospect D-man
To Chicago: For Dustin Byfuglien, I might be dreaming here but as WWEh noticed, the 'Hawks have massive cap problems next year and they could save ~$2 million
To San Jose: Assuming Nabby leaves and Marleau stays, the Sharks need a goaltender who comes cheap, that's Boucher, the Flyers could hopefully get a 4th round pick and a decent D-man for him
The Player: Andreas Nodl
Why Expendable: Too much depth at forward
Why He'd be Wanted: Solid depth forward, never will be above third line status, comes cheap
Possible Destination: Toronto, Montreal, Tampa Bay, Florida
To Toronto: oh wait, sorry, Burke won't trade for a European
To Montreal: The Habs DID trade for Scott Gomez...so, yeah...maybe Nodl goes here
Tampa Bay: Matt Smaby could play D for us, but honestly, TBL has nothing I'd really be interested in...other than Vinny, but a package of Hartnell, Nodl and Boucher for Vinny...seems fair to me...DTV is gonna shoot himself now...
The Needs:
this is easier to look at:
A real third D-pair
a real goalie
Later this week, I plan on doing a free agency based post with where the Flyers should go
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Game 7 Preview: Flyers at Bruins
Two weeks ago, when this series started, I was fairly confident I would be writing this post.
One week ago, when the Flyers were down 3-0, I was ready to toss this post in the garbage.
Now, I have to write it.
Flyers at Bruins game 7, and Down Goes Spezza has all you need to know to pick a winner.
The DGS minds were 50/50 in round one game sevens...we already picked a winner in round 2, the odds are against us, but we will not back down, we will not quit.
DGS is so nervous, that humor may be hard to embrace for this post, but I will try anyway.
-Flyers-
Pro: Have Mike Leighton, statistically the Flyers best goalie during the season, in net for game 7
Con: Should Leighton go down, the next 2 goalies on the Flyers depth chart have about 55 minutes of NHL experience
Pro: Ville Leino is finally playing as advertised when the Flyers got him, BTW, thanks Red Wings Fans!
Con: Ville Leino sure seemed a little uneasy about scoring on countryman and friend, Tuukka Rask.
Pro: Dan Carcillo hasn't taken any dumb penalties this series, or post season for that matter.
Con: NHL record in PIMs...
-Bruins-
Pro: Only 3 teams in sports history have come back from being down 3-0
Con: The pattern of hockey for teams that came back from 0-3 to force a game 7 is lose-win-lose-win-lose...
Pro: Last time an 0-3 became a 3-3 involving a Boston sports team the Boston team came out on top
Con: Last time an 0-3 became a 3-3 involving a Boston sports team the 0-3 team won the series
Pro: Can take solace in the fact that Tim Thomas is available if Rask should need to be lifted.
Con: Rask is rustier than an old lead pipe.
-Final Analysis-
It's in Boston, but I like my team and their chances: Flyers 3, Boston 2
One week ago, when the Flyers were down 3-0, I was ready to toss this post in the garbage.
Now, I have to write it.
Flyers at Bruins game 7, and Down Goes Spezza has all you need to know to pick a winner.
The DGS minds were 50/50 in round one game sevens...we already picked a winner in round 2, the odds are against us, but we will not back down, we will not quit.
DGS is so nervous, that humor may be hard to embrace for this post, but I will try anyway.
-Flyers-
Pro: Have Mike Leighton, statistically the Flyers best goalie during the season, in net for game 7
Con: Should Leighton go down, the next 2 goalies on the Flyers depth chart have about 55 minutes of NHL experience
Pro: Ville Leino is finally playing as advertised when the Flyers got him, BTW, thanks Red Wings Fans!
Con: Ville Leino sure seemed a little uneasy about scoring on countryman and friend, Tuukka Rask.
Pro: Dan Carcillo hasn't taken any dumb penalties this series, or post season for that matter.
Con: NHL record in PIMs...
-Bruins-
Pro: Only 3 teams in sports history have come back from being down 3-0
Con: The pattern of hockey for teams that came back from 0-3 to force a game 7 is lose-win-lose-win-lose...
Pro: Last time an 0-3 became a 3-3 involving a Boston sports team the Boston team came out on top
Con: Last time an 0-3 became a 3-3 involving a Boston sports team the 0-3 team won the series
Pro: Can take solace in the fact that Tim Thomas is available if Rask should need to be lifted.
Con: Rask is rustier than an old lead pipe.
-Final Analysis-
It's in Boston, but I like my team and their chances: Flyers 3, Boston 2
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Uh-oh
Just got word from the Flyers, no Gagne, no Carter tomorrow night.
This spells trouble for the Flyers, look for Leino and one of the call-ups to be in the line up.
My picks for line combos:
Carcillo-Richards-Briere
Hartnell-Giroux-JVR
Leino-Powe-Asham
Laperriere-Betts-[Nodl/Kalinski/Laliberte]
the D will remain the same, and Boucher will be in net again.
Also: since both Gagne and Carter play the PP and PK, this is how those units should look
PP1
Up Front: Carcillo-Richards-Giroux
Blue-Line: Pronger-Timonen
PP2
Up Front: Hartnell-Briere-JVR
Blue-Line: Carle-Coburn [though expect Pronger to play the whole 2 minutes]
PK1
Up Front: Betts/Lappy
D-men: Pronger/Carle
PK2
Up Front: Richards/Hartnell
D-Men: Timonen/Coburn
My opinion here is that Homer's playing this one safe, losing in NJ isn't that important with Game 6 back in Philly.
Keep rocking the Orange
EDIT:
Gagne's out 3 weeks, Carter's out 6, this is NOT good. Hopefully the rest of the team can pick it up though. Flyers have depth, and that helps.
This spells trouble for the Flyers, look for Leino and one of the call-ups to be in the line up.
My picks for line combos:
Carcillo-Richards-Briere
Hartnell-Giroux-JVR
Leino-Powe-Asham
Laperriere-Betts-[Nodl/Kalinski/Laliberte]
the D will remain the same, and Boucher will be in net again.
Also: since both Gagne and Carter play the PP and PK, this is how those units should look
PP1
Up Front: Carcillo-Richards-Giroux
Blue-Line: Pronger-Timonen
PP2
Up Front: Hartnell-Briere-JVR
Blue-Line: Carle-Coburn [though expect Pronger to play the whole 2 minutes]
PK1
Up Front: Betts/Lappy
D-men: Pronger/Carle
PK2
Up Front: Richards/Hartnell
D-Men: Timonen/Coburn
My opinion here is that Homer's playing this one safe, losing in NJ isn't that important with Game 6 back in Philly.
Keep rocking the Orange
EDIT:
Gagne's out 3 weeks, Carter's out 6, this is NOT good. Hopefully the rest of the team can pick it up though. Flyers have depth, and that helps.
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