Fan vs Fan

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Don't Trade Carter, Trade Hartnell Instead

(Author’s Note: I use the term SO to mean shootout in this article)

(Editor's Note: No humor today, I just realized it's been almost a week since I updated this site and I wanted to be sure you guys didn't think I forgot this place existed so I'm double posting a piece I wrote for HFL on why I think Carter should stay and Hartnell should go.)

The guys over at Broad Street Hockey have written several posts as to why Jeff Carter is not worth trading for a goalie. I myself have gone on record as saying the only player I could accept trading Jeff Carter for is Shea Weber. Anyway, I figure it best that to justify these feelings I should actually show the math behind it. In order to show why Carter is not worth a goalie, I will compare Jeff Carter + Sergei Bobrovsky to Ilya Bryzgalov.

Now, this comparison is based on an attempt to prove that losing Jeff Carter’s production will NOT be worth the bonus of a goalie. Think of it this way, the goals Carter scores will outpace the goals prevented by acquiring a top A+ talent goalie.

Jeff Carter had 36G 30A this season for a total of 66 points: that means that Jeff Carter had a hand in 66 goals in 80 games, this means that Jeff Carter created 0.825 Goals per game. This means that in order to replace Jeff Carter’s production, you need to account for AT LEAST 0.825 goals per game in whatever comes back AND keep the team under the salary cap while doing so. So, let’s try to do that shall we. Sergei Bobrovsky had a .915 SV% for a GAA of 2.59 after allowing 130 goals on 1527 shots in just over 3000 minutes of game time in 54 games played. Brian Boucher’s stats were almost identical so using Bob is a fair comparison.

So, when you multiply out Jeff Carter’s offensive production for 54 games instead of 80, you get 44.55 points, which in order to make the Flyers come out ahead means that I will round up to 45 points. So the new goalie would need to allow 85 goals in 54 games…that’s a pace that would DESTROY the current NHL record. The save percentage (based on the shots Bob faced) would be 99.944%. I’ll stop for a second: 99.944 SV%. That is unheard of. That is IMPOSSIBLE. The NHL record for SV% was set this past season by Tim Thomas, it was 93.8%. Now obviously, I’m not completely insane, I know that another forward would take the spot of Jeff Carter on the Flyers top-6.

So rather than stick to that 99.944% number I’m going to set a bar for this new goalie and look at what the replacement for Jeff Carter would have to put up in order to replace the 66 goals that Carter created. Let’s assume that the Flyers land Ilya Bryzgalov. For 3 of the last 4 seasons, Ilya has put up a 92 or 92.1 SV% and has a career SV% of 91.6%. I am going to be generous and say Bryzgalov posts a 92.5 SV% in 55 games as the Flyers goalie. I’m using 55 games because that’s close to what Bobrovsky played as the ‘starter’ this season for the Flyers. Now, let’s assume that because of the age of the Flyers star defenders, Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen, that the Flyers defense allows more shots through on this goalie, whoever he is, so in the 55 games, the Flyers allow 1600 shots on goal. This is an average of just over 29 shots per game up from 28.27 shots per game allowed against Bob last year.

To have a 92.5 SV% Bryzgalov would have to stop 1480 of 1600 shots, which means he allows 120 goals in 55 games for a GAA of 2.18 (this assumes no OT/SO or EN goals and that Bryz plays 60 minutes every game.)

Comparatively speaking, Bob’s 91.5 SV% during the same time: 1464 saves on 1600 shots or 136 goals allowed in 55 games for a GAA of 2.47. (Same rules regarding OT/SO/EN situations.) This means that Bryzgalov is stopping 16 goals that Carter would have scored. Keep the number 16 in mind for later. Jeff Carter created 66 goals in 80 games, since we’re basing our goalies on 55 games, Carter would create 46 goals in 55 games. (It’s actually 45.375, but I’m rounding up which guarantees that if the Flyers ‘break even’ in production terms they’re actually a tiny bit ahead.)

Now, since Bryzgalov is a 16 goal improvement over Bobrovsky in 55 games, we can subtract that 16 from Jeff Carter’s 46 in the 55 games to leave us with 30 goals that need to be accounted for in 55 games or .545 goals per game. This leads to the next question, where do you get a player who creates this type of offense. Well the first thing we’ll do is find out what ‘this kind of offense’ is over an 82 game season, the answer 42.73 points which we will round up to 43. Sounds easy right, finding a 43 point player; well it’s not, because guess what? Carter’s 5.27 cap hit is now on Bryzgalov which means you need to find 43 (or more) points in a player who (according to my calculations) would make less 2.625 against the cap.

Sounds easy right, but wait, ONE MORE THING, you have to replace Ville Leino’s 54 points (per season) as well with another 800K (Leino’s old salary) on the cap, which means, you need to get 2 players, who produce 97 points combined in 82 games with less than 3.1M to do it. This cap number assumes a 62M cap and LTIR of Ian Laperriere, waiving of Shelley, Leighton and Walker and resigning Nodl and Powe to reasonable hits based on their RFA qualifying numbers.

Now, there’s some internal solutions, for one: James van Riemsdyk will surely improve on his 21G 19A effort from 2010-11; 55 points for JvR seems reasonable so that increase of 15 points on his side comes out of the 97 points and knocks it down to 82. So we’re down 2 players costing less than 3.1M AND producing 82 points combined. Assuming Matt Read makes the NHL roster because of his 1-way contract, his NCAA numbers and a limited AHL sample suggest that he could produce like Andreas Nodl did this year, I’m going to be generous and give Matt Read 27 points over a full season. Read has a 900K cap hit. This leaves 2.2M in cap space and 55 points needed just to break even in terms of a full season of production. Can this be done? Yes if Ville Leino signs for 2.2 (he wants 3.5 or more) and has the exact same season, the Flyers break even on dealing Carter for Bryzgalov.

But I propose a counter solution. Trade Scott Hartnell (who has already once agreed his NTC, in 2009 to EDM for Sheldon Souray, but Souray would not waive his NTC) which frees up 4.2 in cap space. Have Matt Read’s 27 points fill in for Hartnell’s projected 50 points then use the remaining (2.625 (cap space)+3.3 Hartnell/Read difference) 5.925 to sign Vokoun at 4 and put 1.925 to signing another 25 point player (they exist at that price and my vote goes to Eric Belanger due to the fact that he’s also solid defensively as well) Here’s why: Vokoun’s save% will be about 92.2% behind the Flyers D and based off his career numbers that could be an understatement, he could very easily put up the 92.5 SV% I put on Bryzgalov. If Vokoun comes in he’s going to stop 11-15 more goals than Bob (92.2-92.4375 SV%) for a GAA of 2.27-2.20. (Again, like earlier, these calculations are based off 1600 shots faced in 55 games)

This means that the Flyers would come out ahead in terms of goals (same offensive production from Read + Belanger in Leino and Hartnell’s slots when JvR’s point increase and the fact that Carter’s got a 16 goal cushion because he’s staying.) And that’s how you win, by scoring more than the other team. This team, based on my calculations with these moves will do just that.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

It Could Be Worse Folks...It Could Be a Lot Worse

The emails and tweets and Facebook messages I've been getting from Flyers fans you'd think Mr. Camping was right and the world had ended. Things could be worse folks, in fact, it could be like this....

The Flyers could have a history that involves 0 playoff wins and impending relocation to Winnipeg; apologies to the Atlanta Thrashers.

The Flyers could be named after a Disney movie; apologies to the Anaheim Ducks

The Flyers could be playing home games in Columbus, OH; apologies to the Blue Jackets and their one fan.

The Flyers could have imploded completely about half way through the season and missed the playoffs entirely, apologies to the Colorado Avalanche.

The Flyers could have acquired a goalie and at the cost of the defensive depth needed to fully utilize that goalie's skills. This is why the Hurricanes missed the playoffs

The Flyers could be run by Sutters, apologies to the Calgary Flames.

The Flyers could be known as the team that tries to use stanchions to decapitate players AND has a doctor on the ice at all times named Recchi; forget it, I'm not apologizing the Boston...

The Flyers could be stuck in Buffalo, apologies to the Buffalo Sabres that aren't named Miller, Gaustad, Myers or Kaleta and a wish that Steve Whyno gets transferred to Buffalo.

The Flyers could have the most annoying goal song ever and a backup goalie with a gambling problem, apologies to the Blackhawks. (If anyone can do better, I'll edit this one)

The Flyers could have massive ownership problems and be stuck in Texas, apologies to the Dallas Stars.

The Flyers could be forced to put a slimy, spineless, dirtball on the ice every game; thank GOD Detroit won't let Todd Bertuzzi go.

The Flyers could be the Edmonton Oilers.

The Flyers could be losing the one bright spot of their franchise and be left with nothing, apologies to the Florida Panthers, welcome to Tomas Vokoun, may I measure you for pads and a #29 Flyers sweater.

The Flyers could move west, and break their legs, and still be coached by Terry Murray and John Stevens, apologies to the LA Kings, please don't let Hextall beat me up.

The Flyers could have given a 7+ cap hit out to a player crippling their cap situation, apologies to Mikko Koivu and the Wild.

The Flyers could have riots after every single playoff game, pardon moi, Montreal.

The Flyers could have goaltending and D, but no scoring punch at all, ever, oh yeah, and they wouldn't know the meaning of the phrase "Conference Finals" apologies to Nashville.

The Flyers could be ducking jelly and have been coached by John MacLean for half a season, LOL DEVILS LOL!

Glen Sather could be taking over for Paul Holmgren tomorrow, Oh Rangers, please don't ever change.

Rick DiPietro could be a Flyer, with that 15yr contract. LOLanders.

The Ottawa Senators are a joke in and of themselves thanks to Jason Spezza's neutral zone drop passes to the other team and Chris Phillips being a total traffic pylon and Cory Clouston's odd coaching moves and Brian Murray's signings of players like Sergei Gonchar and Alex Kovalev and the fact that well, apologies to the 5 Senators fans on the planet who have to deal with that crap.

The Flyers could be the Phoenix Coyotes, where no one ever cares about them and everyone wants them in Hamilton, Ontario; apologies to Jim Balsillie for NOT being able to make this happen.

The Flyers could employ Matt Cooke and he might you know, take off a teammates head during practice, PenGOONs

The Flyers could choke every single postseason ever despite always finishing first in the conference, apologies to the San Jose Sharks.

The Flyers could lose a ton of money on silly ideas like giving season ticket holders their money back if the team misses the playoffs, apologies to the St. Louis Blues.

The Flyers could employ a midget and a bunch of hypocrites regarding spin-o-ramas, apologies to Simon Gagne, Dwayne Roloson and Sean Bergenheim only.

The Flyers could be owned by Harold Ballard and have John Ferguson Jr. as GM at the same time, apologies to the Toronto Maple Leafs, the only team with a Cup drought longer than the Flyers. 1967 happened BEFORE 1975.

The Flyers could be more concerned with getting spots on the 2012 Olympic diving teams rather than winning games all while being paranoid the world is out to get them, sound familiar Vancouver Canucks?

The Flyers could have faux-hawks and ride mopeds and do other douchey things like that; apologies to Washington Capitals fans who actually understand hockey, I know 3 of you.

See, it's not so it?

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Things Daniel Carcillo Said to Get Suspended

So, earlier today it was announced that Dan Carcillo will be suspended 2 games to start the 2011-2012 campaign.

Now it was said that Carcillo engaged in aggressive behavior with officials and a lot of people wonder, what really went down. Needless to say, the DGS-SuperSpies obtained for me the official transcript of what was said between Mr. Carcillo and NHL Linesman Mr. Ms. Brian Murphy (Because Chris Pronger said that refs are the "she")

Dan Carcillo: Hey! Murphy.

Brian Murphy: Yes, Daniel.

Carcillo: Do you like my facial hair?

Murphy: No, sir, I do not.

Carcillo: Why not?

Murphy: It's ugly

Carcillo: I bet if I was Greg Campbell you would like it.

Murphy: That is because Greg Campbell is amazing and I like my job.

Carcillo: But Greg Campbell is a dirty, filthy, cheating, scumbag, bottom feeding, trash bag ho.

Murphy: I think that comment was out of line, Daniel. I will be telling Colie about this.

Carcillo: You think this comment was out of line, is that what you think?

Murphy: Well------


Murphy: Uhh, Danny....*points to figure in the dressing room* that's Colie...he heard you say everything.

Carcillo: *throws head back, falls on floor* I got sticked in the face by that EVIL EVIL EVIL Steve Ott who tried to murder the heroic Greg Campbell.

Colie: Hmm; that's a fair mitigating circumstance, you only get 2 games instead of a lifetime ban.

Monday, May 16, 2011

Other Things NHL Players Have Forgotten

So, earlier this weekend Flyers Captain Michael Richards tweeted about forgetting to pay his cable bill

Oh Richie, were you also expecting a phone call
informing you that the 2nd round of the playoffs
had started as well?
Well, honestly Mr. Richards isn't the only person in the NHL to forget something, as a matter of fact, many NHL players and personalities have been known to forget things, and here at DGS, we have the list.

Paul Holmgren: Has forgotten how to do basic math and has given the Flyers cap problems for at least the next 5 years.

Dan Ellis: Has claimed that he "forgot" to pay his ESCROW.

Nick Lidstrom: Is so old that he has in fact, forgotten to retire.

Paul Holmgren: Has forgotten the rules of the CBA pertaining to 35+ contracts and gave Pronger 7 years and a cap hit of 4.921.

The Toronto Maple Leafs: Have forgotten what the playoffs are.

Joe Thornton: Has apparently forgotten that he is playing in the playoffs right now.

Paul Holmgren: Has forgotten, like his predecessor, what "goaltending" is.

Kyle Wellwood: Forgets to stick to his diet.

Evgeni Nabokov: Forgot that the Islanders do NOT yet have a new arena and ended up lost on Long Island because he absolutely thought that there was no way an NHL team would ever play in the Nassau Coliseum.

Michael Leighton: Has forgotten how to close his 5-hole.

Paul Holmgren: Forgot that Michael Leighton doesn't know how to close his 5 hole and therefore gave him a 1.55 cap hit.

Chris Pronger: Would like to forget this year from hell.

Scott Hartnell and Kris Versteeg: Have both forgotten how to skate which led to the fun of Hartnell Down and Versteeg Down counts.

Jonathan Toews: Has forgotten how to blink, show emotion, and display normal.

The Boston Bruins: Have forgotten that it's perfectly OK to score when you're up a man.

Paul Holmgren: Has forgotten what a draft pick is due to the fact that the Flyers haven't had one in forever.

Roberto Luongo, and many of the Vancouver Canucks: Have forgotten the difference between a diving pool and an ice rink.

Matt Cooke: Will most likely soon forget the lesson he learned from his 17 game suspension for a headshot and will end up elbowing Gregory Campbell in the head early next season.

Gary Bettman: Has obviously forgotten that he doesn't work for the NBA anymore.

Patrick Kane: Has forgotten what it's like to be sober

The Flyers Entire Defensive Corps: Randomly forgets how to play defense leaving Brian Boucher alone against Zdeno Chara slap shots.

Daniel Carcillo: Forgot that some things, like questions involving sexual turn ons, are probably better left to realm of a "DM" on Twitter.

Ilya Bryzgalov: Forgot that the playoffs actually count.

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Other NHL Sex Related Scandals

So earlier today Daniel Carcillo tweeted the following:

@OG_CarBomb13: "@BizNasty2point0 weigh in on this. When a girl leans back while fingers r in her and says "my dad would b so proud of me"..turn on or no??"

Needless to say he followed up with an apology and then a tweet about going

@OG_CarBomb13: "Goin' commando in N.Y. Feeling so free!"
Now, Daniel Carcillo isn't the first NHL player to have a problem with sexist comments as a matter of fact the NHL is littered with tons of sex issues, here's some of the lowlights.

  • December 2008: Sean Avery makes a comment about sloppy seconds. Later in 2010, after a long steady diet of lithium and anti-psychotics, he vows to stand by any gay NHL player who wants to come out of the closet

  • September 2005: Soon after the NHL lockout ends, fans all across the NHL begin questioning the sexuality of one Sidney Crosby.

  • October 2010: James Wisniewski tells Sean Avery to "blow me" marking Wis as being the first NHL player to tell Avery something everyone has wanted to do for years.

  • May 2011: A woman takes a picture of a sleeping Patrick Kane and his boarding pass, come to think of it, why hasn't this happened more often? Also, in a more important question, how did Pat Kane think he was getting to the airport since I'm pretty sure no cabbie would drive him anymore?

  • January 2010: Patrick Kane is photographed shirtless in the back of a limo. The obvious question here is 'does Pat Kane treat limo drivers like he does cabbies?' The second question, "When was Patrick Kane last sober?"

  • June 2008: During the month of June 2008, Brian Rolston discovered a sex-tape of Devils GM Lou Lamoriello, because quite honestly, this is the only explanation for a contract that terrible.

  • July 1996: Todd Bertuzzi gets married, marking the first time a human being has ever married an slimy invertebrate.

  • December 2009: Jeff Carter texts teammate Scott Hartnell that he's going out shopping with wife Lisa for some new outfits so he can look good while picking up women, talk about a text that totally got interpreted wrong.

  • Sometime in say 2004 to present: DGS was accused of kissing girls; and he liked it...something involving the taste of her cherry chapstick

  • Sometime in 2003: Martin Brodeur engages in an affair with his wife's brother's wife. All in all, this makes Chris Pronger look far less slimy.
  • Since 2001: Pregnancies in Detroit have been increasing exponentially due to the fact that Pavel Datsyuk can impregnate women with dekes.
  • May 2009: BizNasty graduated with his degree in "Panty Soup." Enough said.
  • Since 2002: Pierre McGuire has creeped out NHL-ers everywhere by calling games. 

(Editor's Note: RIP Derek Boogaard, you will be missed. 28 is too young for anyone to go.)

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

DGS Podcast Episode 15: Justin from The Goalie Guild

The Flyers have a goaltending problem, so I tried to solve it. I did that by getting the best goalie expert I know to come on the podcast and talk about the Flyers goaltending: Justin from The Goalie Guild

Find Justin on the web at the below links:

The Goalie Guild on Twitter

The Goalie Guild Website

Also: Download the show by clicking here

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

The Media vs the Players fight

Today there was a pissing match between Flyers fans, media and players. After the dust cleared, there was a monologue, the DGS superspies caught the monologue on tape.

Yes, I was part of it too, and I was wrong to have joined in.

Monday, May 9, 2011

Flyers Forwards: What's Going to Happen Next

As I did a few days ago with the goalies, here we go with the forwards. I only did the 14 guys who played over 50 games this season. Anyone who's waiver exempt and spent more time with the Phantoms was not included.

Guaranteed to be back next year:

Mike Richards: he's the captain, a favorite of GM Paul Holmgren and coach Peter Laviolette. No one INSIDE the organization has ever questioned his leadership and the fact that he has another 10 years onn his contract helps too.

Jeff Carter: he's an alternate captain and the same as Richards. Also, it would be incredibly disrespectful to trade someone so soon after inking an 11 year extension with them.

Danny Briere: he's making 6.5M against the cap for 3 more years and has an NMC. Even if the Flyers wanted to, there's no way to move him.

James van Riemsdyk: Making 1.654 against the cap, the Flyers shopped him in November 2010, the asking price then was 2 firsts and 2 seconds and a prospect. At this point, the Flyers might want 4 firsts for him since his 2012 RFA offer sheet would probably be in that range.

Claude Giroux: He was a huge star for the Flyers all year. Also averaged an assist per game in the playoffs. He's back.

75% Chance of returning:

Scott Hartnell: making 4.25 against the cap. He's a fan favorite and a "Philadelphia Type" player. That being said, the Flyers apparently tried to trade him to Edmonton a couple years back for Sheldon Souray but Souray refused to waive his NTC. He might get moved, but I doubt it.

Blair Betts: Blair's major strength, winning PK faceoffs disappeared at the end of this season, right after he broke a finger, because of his 700K cap hit, he is moveable to a team looking for a PK guy, (eyeing you Vancouver, more on this later)

Jody Shelley: He's making 1.1 against the cap, which for an enforcer, is rather steep. He also had a broken orbital bone causing him to miss a lot of time towards the end of the season, and it rendered him unavailable for the first round of the playoffs as well. 

Darroll Powe: He's an RFA looking for a raise from his 725K salary to something close to 950K. Barring major cap issues; I can't see him going anywhere.

Andreas Nodl: Same as Powe, but I think Nodl gets moved BEFORE Powe does as Matt Read is under contract for next year at 900K and he's a similar player to Nodl.

50% Chance of returning

Kris Versteeg: It's not his fault by any stretch the team struggled. He was hurt and all. That being said, 20 goal 20 assist guys who can play all 3 forward positions and PP/PK situations don't grow on trees. His cap hit is reasonable and he's an RFA in 2012. This could fetch something decent in a trade, especially if the Flyers need to create cap room.

Dan Carcillo: An RFA, who, no matter what, is one of many of his kind. Tom Sestito plays the same type of game and should be 250K cheaper. Because of this, I would think Carbomb's the odd man out.

Ville Leino: He's a UFA who disappeared during the playoffs. He's 28, and probably won't be better than the 19G 34A he had this season. He's not an elite offensive talent, and not a top line talent by any stretch. Because of that, he can walk and I personally, will not miss him.

Will Not Return

Nikolay Zherdev: his known attitude problems and clashing with Laviolette means Z is going to be either back in Russia, or on another NHL team.

I mentioned Betts earlier and I thought I toss in a trade idea.

Vancouver and Philadelphia both have major cap issues as well as mutual needs so I came up with this trade to solve both teams problems.

To PHL: Cory Schneider (G)
To VAN: Matt Carle (D), Blair Betts (C), Johan Backlund (G) 1st in 2012, 6th in 2011

Why this works: The Canucks probably won't be able to afford retaining the services of Christian Ehrhoff in the off-season so they'll need a new D-man to take his spot. Carle does this at about 60% of the cost of Ehrhoff which save Van about $2.1M in cap space. Johan Backlund is on a 1-way 800K contract, he would take over as Luongo's backup. Blair Betts would be the PK center that Manny Malholtra was since Manny has the eye problems. The picks make up for the fact that Cory Schneider is a legit NHL starter in the making.

Sound good?

Hartnell Down or Versteeg Down- The Final Numbers

Hartnell Down ended at 330, over 90 games, meaning he fell 3.3 times a game, or 1.1 times a period.

Other things involving 3.3 in the NHL:

-The average amount of goals per period allowed through the 5-hole of Michael Leighton

-Number (in millions of US Dollars) Glen Sather will overpay for a player.

-Amount of times Pierre McGuire says "leadership" per sentence when talking about MIKE "OMG LEADERSHIP!!1111!1!11!" Richards

-Amount of times, per shift, Jeff Carter shoots high and wide

-Amount of dives Robert Luongo takes per period

-Amount of headshots Matt Cooke gave me while I wrote this post

-Amount of goalie changes Peter Laviolette makes per post season game.

-Amount of healthy players the Flyers had left for game 4 against Boston.

-Amount of time, in seconds, Nikolay Zherdev gave a crap about defense during the entire regular season

-Amount of time, in seconds, Nikolay Zherdev was lazy during the post-season

Versteeg Down (18 for round 2; 26 for round 1 for a playoff total of 44)

44 by numbers:

-The number worn by Kimmo Timonen; the Finnish God of Defense

-The amount of time, in minutes, that Chris Pronger was fully healthy during playoffs

-The amount of shots, needed to score 45 goals, on the Flyers goaltending this year

-Amount of time, in years, before Paul Holmgren decides that goaltending is important

-Amount of headshots occurring per period in every NHL playoff game...if you trust people's reactions via Twitter

-Amount of time, in hours, Sean Avery can go without saying something stupid

-Amount of time, in seconds, it will take Glen Sather to overpay for a free agent on July 1

-Amount of new rumors, per day, linking big name UFA's Brad Richards and Christian Ehrhoff to the Toronto Maple Leafs

-Amount of rumors, per hour, claiming Tampa Bay is going to trade their captain, Vincent Lecavalier.

-Measure, in inches, of Tim Thomas's waist

-Amount of PIMs Chris Pronger had in 2010-11.

-Amount of elbows to head Chris Pronger throws per game

Saturday, May 7, 2011

The Flyers 2011-12 Roster...what will change from now (Goalie+D edition)

Brian Boucher: 2012 contract UFA- gone, bye-bye, see ya…no need for Boosh now.

Johan Backlund: 2012 contract 800K, 1way- he should clear waivers again and be the AHL starter, if not, the claiming team is on the hook for his WHOLE salary

Michael Leighton: 2012 contract 1.55M, 1way- Michael Leighton waiver-saver is now Michael Leighton which is English for Roman Cechmanek. He’s gonna be in the AHL unless the Flyers are lucky enough to sucker someone into trading for him.

Sergei Bobrovsky: 2012 contract 1.75M cap hit, 2-way, waiver exempt- Bob’s the 1-A goalie next year…expect him to start 30-35 games if the Flyers get a solid vet to pair him with or 50-55 if the Bob-Leighton show is in effect


Kimmo Timonen: 2012 contract 6.33M cap hit 1 way- If Kimmo retires, his cap hit goes away. If he stays, he’s probably going to have some offseason surgery to clean up any of the nagging problems. Hope he’s ready to go come September.

Braydon Coburn: 2012 contract 3.2M cap hit 1way- He’s going to back. One of the 2 most solid Flyers D-men this year, and he’s got a reasonable cap hit. This means he’s good to stay. Also, see below.

Matt Carle: 2012 contract 3.437M cap hit 1way- Here’s the guy who I think gets moved. His amazing regular season will be overshadowed by his playoff implosion. The regular season will be the selling point in trade negotiations. The buyer, in my opinion will be Vancouver. The Canucks need to replace the UFA Christian Ehrhoff who’s going to get a massive pay day on July 1. Matt Carle is a similar player, less talented, but also comes at half the cost. Carle to Vancouver for picks or Carle+2012 picks for Cory Schneider is possible.

Andrej Meszaros: 2012 contract 4.0M cap hit 1 way- The Flyers best D-man this season. Played solidly in the playoffs. Next year though, he is not going to be coddled at the number 5 slot. He’s gotta play big minutes because at 36/37, Pronger and Timonen are slowing down.

Chris Pronger: 2012 contract 4.921M cap hit 1 way, 35+- Pronger is on the books no matter what. He may however, spend time on LTIR for the first half of the season. He apparently has the same back problem Leighton had last year. So once again, this team needs to win without Pronger.

Sean O’Donnell: 2012 contract UFA- he’s 39 and was a pylon. Number 6 D-men can be replaced. If SOD wants to come back at say, 750K, it’s a good deal. If not, Gustafsson, Walker or another UFA can fill this role.

Oskars Bartulis: 2012 contract 600k cap hit 1 way: He’s back, the 7th D-man again

Matt Walker: 2012 contract 1.7M cap hit 1 way: He’s the SOD next season. If he stays healthy. If not, waive him and use the cap space to grab another player.

The forwards will come up Sunday. Feel free to ask questions.

Sunday, May 1, 2011

How Peter Laviolette Picks His Starting Goaltender (Playoff Edition)

Many of you remember the goalie flowchart where I showed how Lavi picks his starting goalie. This is the playoff version.

Lavi rolls a pair of dice, depending on what comes up, Lavi picks the goalie:

snake eyes: Johan Backlund
pairs that aren't snake eyes: Michael Leighton
5,6,7,8,9 non pairs: Brian Boucher
3,4,10,11 non pairs: Sergei Bobrovsky

Now you know.