Prospect Profile: Matt Read

If you’ve been reading my recent columns you’ve probably noticed that I keep mentioning Flyers prospect (yes, contrary to popular belief, the Flyers have a couple prospects out there) Matt Read. Read is a forward out of Bemidji State University (BSU) in Minnesota. He just signed a 3 year contract with the Flyers with a 900K cap hit, but most importantly, it’s a 1-way contract which means, he’s got to (possibly…the NHL CBA is conflicting on this) clear waivers right away.

Now, obviously giving him a 3-year 1-way contract means that someone in the Flyers front office thinks highly of Mr. Read, so in order to show what Matt Read could become, I’m going to draw some comparisons to some current Flyers players, Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk, Darroll Powe and Andreas Nodl. I have reasons for picking these 4 players which I will explain quickly here, and in more detail as the profile moves on.

Claude Giroux: In limited AHL duty, Giroux and Read put up eerily similar numbers which later on in this post I will break down. Also, both players are roughly the same size (Read’s 5’10 180, Giroux 5’11 175) so you know what you’re getting in terms of appearance. (I haven’t seen enough video to tell if their skating ability is the same

James van Riemsdyk: Read’s college numbers were similar to JvR’s which I will break down in detail later.

Darroll Powe: Powe, like Read, is a “late bloomer” and Read’s already 25.

Andreas Nodl: both Read and Nodl are products of the USHL then WHCA so since their careers followed similar paths in the past, I’m going to use Nodl as another point of reference as to what Matt Read could be.

Now let’s put Matt Read’s numbers on display (Source is HockeyDB)

Matt Read:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  

2006-07  Des Moines Buccaneers       USHL   58   28   34   62  110

2007-08  Bemidji State University    CHA    36    9   18   27   37

2008-09  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   15   25   40   50

2009-10  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   19   22   41   32

2010-11  Bemidji State University    WCHA   37   22   13   35   34

2010-11  Adirondack Phantoms         AHL    11    7    6   13    6

Yes, I realize, there is no NHL experience up there and very little AHL experience on the board, so we need points of reference to NHL players to hopefully come up with a possible extension as to what this means.  Easiest way to do that, start with the beginning of Mr. Read’s career, the USHL and look at another USHL product on the Flyers, Andreas Nodl.

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  

2004-05  Sioux Falls Stampede        USHL   44    7    9   16   24  

2005-06  Sioux Falls Stampede        USHL   58   29   30   59   16  

In Nodl’s better USHL season compared to Read’s only USHL season the 2 players put up comparable offensive numbers. Seriously, they’re eerily similar.

Both Nodl and Read moved onto the WCHA after that. Nodl would play at St. Cloud State while Read played at BSU. I like this comparison because since both guys played in the USHL and WCHA they faced rather similar competition at both levels.

Here’s Nodl’s numbers:

2006-07  St. Cloud State             WCHA   40   18   28   46   32

2007-08  St. Cloud State             WCHA   40   18   26   44   22

And Read:

2007-08  Bemidji State University    CHA    36    9   18   27   37

2008-09  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   15   25   40   50

2009-10  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   19   22   41   32

2010-11  Bemidji State University    WCHA   37   22   13   35   34

Again, 2 very similar players, both were over a point a game for the most part, with Matt Read having an edge in terms of goals per game ratio (when discounting his 1^st year which seems to be an outlier). Another thing to notice, is with the goals, Nodl stayed the same while Matt Read improved every season, this is something of which it is important to take note.

Also fun fact: Read put up better college numbers than JvR, granted JvR played in the tougher Hockey East division:

JvR’s numbers:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM

2007-08  U. of New Hampshire         H-Eas  31   11   23   34   36

2008-09  U. of New Hampshire         H-Eas  36   17   23   40   47

Also all 3 of these players out produced Darroll Powe in college:

Powe

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM

2003-04  Princeton University        ECAC   29    4    5    9   28

2004-05  Princeton University        ECAC   30    5    2    7   41

2005-06  Princeton University        ECAC   27    6   10   16   48

2006-07  Princeton University        ECAC   34   13   15   28   63

Now of course, we all know that Nodl, prior to this past season, has had trouble scoring earning the nickname No-Goal-Nodl but this is where you’ll notice a huge difference in their progression up the minors, Matt Read (in a limited sample) produced in the AHL:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  
2010-11  Adirondack Phantoms         AHL    11    7    6   13    6

Compared to Nodl:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM
2008-09  Philadelphia Phantoms       AHL    39    6   14   20   20   

2009-10  Adirondack Phantoms         AHL    65   14   20   34   24

Now, in Read’s limited sample we see that Read was over a point-a-game player in the AHL, while Nodl was putting up .52 Points Per Game, in this limited sample, it’s easy to see that Nodl’s game dropped off when he hit the AHL, and again in the NHL. Do you know what current Flyers player put up similar AHL numbers than Read?

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM

2008-09  Philadelphia Phantoms       AHL    33   17   17   34   22

That’s Claude Giroux in the AHL right there. If you adjust Matt Read’s numbers for the same 33 games Claude Giroux played, Read would have had 21G 18A 18PIMs which means, Matt Read is better than rookie Claude Giroux.

I am not saying Read is better than Giroux right now, Giroux is 23 and only getting better, Matt Read is 25 and about to peak so it’s probably fair to expect something similar to Giroux’s rookie season for Matt Read, so let’s pull Claude Giroux’s rookie NHL season:

Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM

2008-09  Philadelphia Flyers         NHL    42    9   18   27   14

Claude Giroux put up decent numbers as rookie; now let’s adjust those numbers for 82 games played.

The 82 game adjust numbers

Goals: 17.57
Assists: 35.14
Points:  52.71

Those numbers, rounded off, come to 18 goals, 35 assists and 53 points, and that total, should look creepishly similar to a current Flyers player who’s a couple years older than Matt Read; his name is Ville Leino. Since Read’s production in the AHL had a slightly skewed goal-assist ratio compared to Giroux I am going to assume it’s accounted in the fact that the 2010-11 Phantoms had no talent for Read to work with compared to Giroux’s 08-09 Phantoms who were not completely terrible. Because of this, I would like to think that Matt Read has the potential to produce like Claude Giroux or James van Riemsdyk did as a rookie, but without the hype of becoming a top superstar.

Conclusion: If Matt Read progresses as his numbers indicate, at 900K he’s the perfect replacement for Ville Leino. If you can get 50 points from Read at 900K or 55 points from Leino at 2.5M against the Cap, the 5 points are worth the 1.6M that Matt Read would save because that could be used to acquire a goalie who would save goals on the other end.

Conversely, if Matt Read goes bust like Nodl did as rookie, I highly doubt anyone would claim him on waivers on the way down, which would free up the Flyers to make another move, such as importing a European player or making a trade.

The Flyers NEED Matt Read to be closer to Leino than Nodl however, because, the Flyers lack draft picks to restock the system. I’ve run the numbers, now the question is: who is Matt Read? Ville Leino or Andreas Nodl.