Fan vs Fan

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Steven Stamkos to The Flyers- Bad Idea

Steven Stamkos to the Flyers? Bad idea.

To elaborate, here's why:

(All Numbers from @CapGeek)

If the Flyers were to sign Stamkos at say, 7.1M per season for 15 years, and fork over their next 4 First Round picks, this is what the Flyers would be looking at:

Hartnell 4.2 NTC, Briere 6.5 NMC, Stamkos 7.1
JvR 1.654, Giroux 3.75, Schenn 3.1
Versteeg 3.083, Betts 700K, Nodl 850K
Read 900K, Shelley 1.1M

Total Cap Hit: 29.904M

Pronger 4.921 35+, Timonen 6.3 NMC
Meszaros 4, Coburn 3.2
Carle 3.4375, Bartulis 600K

Total Cap Hit: 22.4585

Bryzgalov: 5.666
Bobrovsky: 1.75

Total Cal Hit: 7.416

Team Total: 29.904+22.4856+7.416= 59.806M committed salary

LTIR: Ian Lapperiere

Waive to AHL: Matt Walker, Michael Leighton

So it looks good, right? Stamkos is a Flyer and there's 4.4944, but wait...this isn't a full roster. For the sake of ease of math, I'll round up the cap number to 4.5M free.

4.5 Million and the following needs:

a Number 6 Defenseman on the UFA market, a UFA 13th Forward and 2 RFA's that need to be signed, Simmonds and Voracek. Well, by value of production the RFA offers to Simmonds and Voracek should be 1.75 for Simmonds and 2.5 for Voracek so, that totals 4.25 for the 2 RFA's meaning there's 250K for a 13th forward and a 6th Defenseman.

Well, obviously Sestito makes Jody Shelley expendable, so waive Jody Shelley, that means the Flyers now have 1.35 free in cap money, call up Eric Wellwood at 580K as the replacement for Jody Shelley and the Flyers have 770K free for 2 roster spots, a 6th Defenseman and a 12th Forward.

Ok, so, maybe Brayden Schenn starts the season in the AHL, freeing up 3.1M in cap room, but then Ville Leino is resigned at 2.67 to replace him so, when the 3.1 of Schenn is added to the 770K and then the 2.67 for Leino is factored in; the Flyers have 1.2M in Cap Space and 2 roster spots open, a 6th D-man and a 13th Forward who both come in at the league minimum.

Call up Zac Rinaldo as the 13th forward and the Flyers have 655K in capspace and 1 Defenseman that needs to be filled.

655K, one defenseman is easy to find, but then...the Flyers have ZERO space for anyone to get hurt. If any player, misses a game due to injury, the Flyers have no space to make an injury callup as LTIR doesn't kick in unless a player misses 10 games or 24 days.

Ok, but Matt, there's solutions like these:

Trade Versteeg's 3,083M for a 1.5M D-man: Problem, the Flyers shopped Versteeg, there were no takers...this doesn't work

Trade Carle for a 1.5M D-man and a mid round pick to balance the lack of value coming back: Problem- Carle may be average without Pronger, but if the Flyers deal any defenseman not named Pronger or Timonen, the blueline becomes hugely weakened.

Trade Timonen/Briere: I would LOVE to trade these players, they're horribly overpaid, but both have FULL NMC's, the team can ask them to waive it, but here's how that would go:

Holmgren: Hey, can you waive your NMC?
Timonen/Briere: Or what?
Holmgren: We will waive you
Timonen/Briere: You can't, it's an NMC not NTC.
Holmgren: We will buy you out.
Timonen/Briere: You can't, it's an NMC.
Holmgren: Oh, uhh, I guess you have me in a corner here.
Timonen/Briere: DUH!

Get the picture?

Trade Hartnell for a 2.5M D-man: This could work, Harntell has agreed to waive his NTC, if the Flyers can find the right deal, it could work. All they need is a trade partner that needs to hit the salary floor and can give a decent D-man back the other way. If Colorado would deal Erik Johnson for Hartnell and Carle, it could work nicely, but this deal has a less than 10% chance of happening.

Waive Hartnell: Actually, this one works...if you're willing to lose Hartnell for free...or risk him at half price on Recall Waivers

If you're trading Giroux/JvR to make the cap-space, well your hurting the team in the long run and I refuse to crunch any numbers on that idea.

Anyway, see my point, Steven Stamkos isn't worth this headache for the Flyers, unless he's guaranteed to keep the whole team healthy AND score 60 goals.

Or the Flyers can just trade Bryzgalov to Colorado for Erik Johnson and free up 3.06M, resign Brian Boucher to backup Bobrovsky...I'd say this would never happen, but Holmgren dealt Jeff Carter before his 11 year extension kicked in....

And for Stephen:

Stamkos would be a good fit on the Colorado Avalanche. They have the Cap Space. This wouldn't be a problem.


  1. An NMC doesn't mean you cannot be waived or bought out. See Chris Drury.

    It simply means you cannot be assigned to an AHL team without approval.

    Like I said, you can still be waived / bought out though.

  2. Who would claim those salaries on waivers? since they can't go to the AHL-there's no half price recall waivers.

    And a buyout destroys the Flyers cap situation long term...making them bad moves.